MN Thunder Academy
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU17 · 16 teams · Minnesota Thunder Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 02:30 PM
Academy of Holy Angels, South Turf 1 (11v11) ↗ · turf
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.1 against · 2.32 expected points)
| Season so far | MN Thunder Academy | Sporting Blue Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 1-2-7 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 6 |
| Form (recent first) | — | L W D L L |
| Biggest win | — | 5–0 vs Liverpool FC MI |
| Worst loss | — | 0–7 at Michigan Hawks |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | -1.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.17 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Sporting Blue Valley average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 6 of 10.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Sporting Blue Valley sit 14th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Sporting Blue Valley on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Blue Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MN Thunder Academy – Sporting Blue Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 13 | 2nd▲ up 13 | 2nd▲ up 13 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 13 | 2nd▲ up 13 | 2nd▲ up 13 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
12th▲ up 3 | 11th▲ up 4 | 12th▲ up 3 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
15th— holds | 15th— holds | 15th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 27%
- 7th 14%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 8%
- 10th 6%
- 11th 7%
- 12th 6%
- 13th 6%
- 14th 4%
- 15th 1%
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.80) | Win next game |
| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 2.82 (+2.82) | 2nd (2.69) | A point next game |
| 3 | Nationals SC | 2.11 (+2.11) | 3rd (2.02) | A point next game |
| 4 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 2.00 (+2.00) | 5th (1.85) | A point next game |
| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 1.91 (+1.91) | 4th (2.00) | A point next game |
| 6 | Chicago Inter | 1.44 (+1.44) | 6th (1.42) | A point next game |
| 7 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 1.36 (+1.36) | 11th (1.22) | A point next game |
| 8 | Sporting Iowa | 1.27 (+1.27) | 12th (1.19) | A point next game |
| 9 | Missouri Rush | 1.25 (+1.25) | 10th (1.22) | A point next game |
| 10 | Rockford Raptors FC | 1.10 (+1.10) | 9th (1.24) | A point next game |
| 11 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 1.00 (+1.00) | 8th (1.24) | A point next game |
| 12 | FC Wisconsin | 1.00 (+1.00) | 13th (1.11) | A point next game |
| 13 | Kansas City Athletics | 0.92 (+0.92) | 14th (0.89) | Already ahead |
| 14 | Sporting Blue Valley | 0.50 (+0.50) | 15th (0.57) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
17 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 7th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 02:30 PM |
Sporting Blue Valley 14th · 1-2-7 · GD -20 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 08:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 13th · 3-2-7 · GD -19 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Liverpool FC MI 16th · 0-0-11 · GD -56 |
Away far trip
Avondale High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 09:30 AM |
Nationals SC 3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Evolution Sportsplex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 1.99 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 10:00 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 11th · 3-1-6 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Oak Brook Park District · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.13 | 1.82 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 10:45 AM |
Chicago Inter 6th · 4-1-4 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Chicago Inter Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.44 | 1.75 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 12:00 PM |
Michigan Hawks 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +44 |
Away far trip
St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.13 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 10:00 AM |
Michigan Hawks Magic 4th · 7-1-3 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
Legacy Center Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–3 | 0.71 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 08:00 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 2nd · 10-1-0 · GD +37 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–2 | 0.29 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 10:00 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 7th · 5-0-6 · GD -5 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 19 08:00 AM |
Gretna Elite Academy 5th · 6-3-2 · GD +16 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 20 10:00 AM |
FC Wisconsin 12th · 3-1-6 · GD -8 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–1 | 1.85 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 16 09:45 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 10th · 3-2-5 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 TBD |
Missouri Rush 9th · 4-3-5 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.23 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 05:30 PM |
Sporting Iowa 8th · 4-2-5 · GD -17 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.19 | 1.40 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 6 | +44 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.25 | -0.15 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Nov 1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sat Dec 5 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 2 | +37 | 31 | 2.82 | WWWDW | -0.59 | +1.12 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Hawks Magic · Sat Nov 21 at Missouri Rush See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 | 2.11 | WWWLW | -0.55 | +0.55 | 76% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Nov 8 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 23 | +19 | 22 | 2.00 | WLWWL | -0.38 | +0.81 | 37% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sun Nov 1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Dec 6 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 21 | 1.91 | DLLDW | +0.14 | -0.38 | 82% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Chicago Inter | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 13 | 1.44 | DWLLL | +0.44 | -0.54 | 1% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Oct 25 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 15 | 1.36 | LLWLL | -0.32 | +1.02 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Michigan Hawks Magic · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Inter See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Iowa | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 14 | 1.27 | DWLWL | +0.32 | -0.38 | 0% | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Dec 12 at Sporting Blue Valley See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Missouri Rush | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 22 | +1 | 15 | 1.25 | WDWLD | -0.26 | +0.89 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Jan 17 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Rockford Raptors FC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 11 | 1.10 | WDWLL | +0.32 | -0.37 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 8 at Nationals SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 10 | 1.00 | DWLLW | +0.48 | -0.80 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa · Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Wisconsin | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 | 1.00 | WLWWD | +0.18 | -0.33 | 0% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Kansas City Athletics | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 31 | -19 | 11 | 0.92 | DLDWW | +0.15 | -0.27 | 0% | 13.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Nov 1 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 8 at MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Sporting Blue Valley | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 5 | 0.50 | LLDWL | +0.17 | -0.17 | 0% | 14.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Nov 7 at MN Thunder Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | MN Thunder Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 8 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 14 at Liverpool FC MI See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Liverpool FC MI | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 61 | -56 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.02 | +0.79 | 0% | 16.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 14 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.