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FC Wisconsin

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU17 · 16 teams · FC Wisconsin Girls (all teams)

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12th
3-1-6 record · 10 played
1.00 points per game
-8 goal diff · 11–19
WLWWDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.2
+0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:45 PM

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FC Wisconsin
12th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Nationals SC
3rd · 2.11 PPG

University School Milwaukee, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.8 for, 2.1 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so farFC WisconsinNationals SC
Position12th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-66-1-2
Points per game1.002.11
Goals for / game1.12.7
Goals against / game1.90.8
Clean sheets34
Held scoreless62
Form (recent first)D W W L WW L W W W
Biggest win4–0 vs Liverpool FC MI10–0 vs Liverpool FC MI
Worst loss0–6 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club0–2 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.52+1.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.18-0.55

Common opponents: Gretna Elite Academy — we 0–2; they 0–0. Sporting Iowa — we 0–1; they 3–0. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 0–4; they 0–2. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 4–1; they 3–1. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 0–6; they 2–1. Liverpool FC MI — we 4–0; they 10–0. Missouri Rush — we 0–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Nationals SC concede only 0.8/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–2 at Gretna Elite Academy, 0–1 at Sporting Iowa, 0–2 vs Michigan Hawks Magic, 0–4 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy, 0–6 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club, 0–0 at Missouri Rush.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Eclipse Select Soccer Club sit 11th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Eclipse Select Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wisconsin – Nationals SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.91 PPG
13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1
Win
1.18 PPG
10th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 3 11th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Loss
0.91 PPG
13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 17%
  13. 13th 21%
  14. 14th 12%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.80) 35 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 2.82 (+1.82) 2nd (2.69) 33 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Nationals SC 2.11 (+1.11) 3rd (2.02) 22 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Michigan Hawks Magic 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.85) 20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Gretna Elite Academy 1.91 (+0.91) 4th (2.00) 19 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Chicago Inter 1.44 (+0.44) 6th (1.42) 12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
7 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 1.36 (+0.36) 11th (1.22) 11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
8 Sporting Iowa 1.27 (+0.27) 12th (1.19) 10 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
9 Missouri Rush 1.25 (+0.25) 10th (1.22) 9 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
10 Rockford Raptors FC 1.10 (+0.10) 9th (1.24) A point next game
11 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.24) A point next game

How the results connect

69 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Wisconsin to Nationals SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us
4 even
43 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 1–2 4–1 1–3 0–4 2–0 0–2 0–0 0–1 0–3 4–0 0–10 0–6 1–2 2–2 1–4 1–1 2–1 0–0 3–1 FC Wisconsin 12th Missouri Rush 9th St. Louis Scott Gal… 7th St. Louis Scott Gal… 2nd Gretna Elite Academy 5th Sporting Iowa 8th Liverpool FC MI 16th Eclipse Select Socc… 11th Kansas City Athleti… 13th Nationals SC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.33 · 11th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:45 PM
Nationals SC
3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +17
Home
University School Milwaukee · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–2 0.60 0.96 Upside
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
Kansas City Athletics
13th · 3-2-7 · GD -19
Home
Mercy Health Sportscore 2
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.82 1.03 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
Sporting Blue Valley
14th · 1-2-7 · GD -20
Home
Mercy Health Sportscore 2
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–1 1.92 1.10 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
02:00 PM
Rockford Raptors FC
10th · 3-2-5 · GD -5
Home
University School Milwaukee · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.32 1.12 Upside
Sun Dec 20
10:00 AM
MN Thunder Academy
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.93 1.11 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks 101000 506+44 303.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.15 100% 1.3
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 111010 392+37 312.82 WWWDW -0.59 +1.12 100% 1.7
3 Nationals SC 9612 247+17 192.11 WWWLW -0.55 +0.55 75% 3.8
4 Michigan Hawks Magic 11713 4223+19 222.00 WLWWL -0.38 +0.81 41% 4.6
5 Gretna Elite Academy 11632 2711+16 211.91 DLLDW +0.14 -0.38 80% 3.9
6 Chicago Inter 9414 1722-5 131.44 DWLLL +0.44 -0.54 1% 7.7
7 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11506 1217-5 151.36 LLWLL -0.32 +1.02 0% 10.1
8 Sporting Iowa 11425 1128-17 141.27 DWLWL +0.32 -0.38 0% 10.6
9 Missouri Rush 12435 2322+1 151.25 WDWLD -0.26 +0.89 0% 9.6
10 Rockford Raptors FC 10325 1722-5 111.10 WDWLL +0.32 -0.37 0% 9.7
11 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 10316 1918+1 101.00 DWLLW +0.48 -0.80 0% 9.3
12 FC Wisconsin 10316 1119-8 101.00 WLWWD +0.18 -0.33 0% 11.2
13 Kansas City Athletics 12327 1231-19 110.92 DLDWW +0.15 -0.27 0% 13.6
14 Sporting Blue Valley 10127 929-20 50.50 LLDWL +0.17 -0.17 0% 14.9
15 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
16 Liverpool FC MI 110011 561-56 00.00 LLLLL +0.02 +0.79 0% 16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.