TableChase Clubs

Missouri Rush

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU17 · 16 teams · Missouri Rush (all teams)

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9th
4-3-5 record · 12 played
1.25 points per game
+1 goal diff · 23–22
WDWLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.7
-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:00 PM

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Missouri Rush
9th · 1.25 PPG
vs

Missouri Rush Sports Park, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.8 against · 1.43 expected points)

Season so farMissouri RushEclipse Select Soccer Club
Position9th11th
Record (W-D-L)4-3-53-1-6
Points per game1.251.00
Goals for / game1.91.9
Goals against / game1.81.8
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)D L W D WW L L W D
Biggest win4–1 at Liverpool FC MI6–0 vs FC Wisconsin
Worst loss0–2 at Chicago Inter0–5 vs Michigan Hawks
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.03+0.21
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.26+0.48

Common opponents: Chicago Inter — we 0–2; they 2–3. Michigan Hawks — we 2–3; they 0–5. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 2–3; they 3–1. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 2–3; they 0–1. Sporting Blue Valley — we 2–2; they 4–1. Rockford Raptors FC — we 3–2; they 1–1. Kansas City Athletics — we 2–1; they 0–1. Nationals SC — we 1–2; they 1–2. FC Wisconsin — we 0–0; they 6–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Chicago Inter, 0–0 vs FC Wisconsin.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 40%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Sporting Iowa sit 8th on 1.27 PPG; we are on 1.25.

    A point moves us above Sporting Iowa on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Missouri Rush – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.23 PPG
9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2
Win
1.38 PPG
7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Draw
1.23 PPG
9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2
Loss
1.15 PPG
10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 18%
  10. 10th 20%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 7%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks 3.00 (+1.75) 1st (2.80) 30 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 2.82 (+1.57) 2nd (2.69) 28 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Nationals SC 2.11 (+0.86) 3rd (2.02) 17 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Michigan Hawks Magic 2.00 (+0.75) 5th (1.85) 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Gretna Elite Academy 1.91 (+0.66) 4th (2.00) 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Chicago Inter 1.44 (+0.19) 6th (1.42) 7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
7 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 1.36 (+0.11) 11th (1.22) A point next game
8 Sporting Iowa 1.27 (+0.02) 12th (1.19) A point next game

How the results connect

86 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Missouri Rush to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

33 favour us
11 even
42 favour them
-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 2–1 2–3 1–0 3–2 1–1 0–2 3–2 2–1 1–0 2–2 1–4 2–3 1–3 2–3 5–0 0–0 0–6 3–1 0–3 0–7 0–2 3–2 Missouri Rush 9th Nationals SC 3rd St. Louis Scott Gal… 7th Rockford Raptors FC 10th Chicago Inter 6th Kansas City Athleti… 13th Sporting Blue Valley 14th Michigan Hawks Magic 4th Michigan Hawks 1st FC Wisconsin 12th Sporting Iowa 8th St. Louis Scott Gal… 2nd Eclipse Select Socc… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.89 · 3rd hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Eclipse Select Soccer Club
11th · 3-1-6 · GD +1
Home
Missouri Rush Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 1.26 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy
2nd · 10-1-0 · GD +37
Home
Missouri Rush Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–2 0.31 1.20 Upside
Sun Jan 17
TBD
MN Thunder Academy
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.56 1.22 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks 101000 506+44 303.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.15 100% 1.4
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 111010 392+37 312.82 WWWDW -0.59 +1.12 100% 1.7
3 Nationals SC 9612 247+17 192.11 WWWLW -0.55 +0.55 78% 3.8
4 Michigan Hawks Magic 11713 4223+19 222.00 WLWWL -0.38 +0.81 36% 4.6
5 Gretna Elite Academy 11632 2711+16 211.91 DLLDW +0.14 -0.38 81% 3.8
6 Chicago Inter 9414 1722-5 131.44 DWLLL +0.44 -0.54 1% 7.7
7 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11506 1217-5 151.36 LLWLL -0.32 +1.02 0% 10.0
8 Sporting Iowa 11425 1128-17 141.27 DWLWL +0.32 -0.38 0% 10.7
9 Missouri Rush 12435 2322+1 151.25 WDWLD -0.26 +0.89 0% 9.7
10 Rockford Raptors FC 10325 1722-5 111.10 WDWLL +0.32 -0.37 0% 9.6
11 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 10316 1918+1 101.00 DWLLW +0.48 -0.80 0% 9.2
12 FC Wisconsin 10316 1119-8 101.00 WLWWD +0.18 -0.33 0% 11.3
13 Kansas City Athletics 12327 1231-19 110.92 DLDWW +0.15 -0.27 0% 13.6
14 Sporting Blue Valley 10127 929-20 50.50 LLDWL +0.17 -0.17 0% 14.9
15 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
16 Liverpool FC MI 110011 561-56 00.00 LLLLL +0.02 +0.79 0% 16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.