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Chicago Inter

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU17 · 16 teams · Chicago Inter (all teams)

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6th
4-1-4 record · 9 played
1.44 points per game
-5 goal diff · 17–22
DWLLLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.8
+0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Chicago Inter
6th · 1.44 PPG
at
Sporting Iowa
8th · 1.27 PPG

Hy-Vee Multiplex, Green #1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.5 against · 1.80 expected points)

Season so farChicago InterSporting Iowa
Position6th8th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-44-2-5
Points per game1.441.27
Goals for / game1.91.0
Goals against / game2.42.5
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless34
Form (recent first)L L L W DL W L W D
Biggest win4–1 at Sporting Blue Valley2–0 vs Liverpool FC MI
Worst loss1–7 vs Michigan Hawks0–7 at Michigan Hawks
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.34-1.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.44+0.32

Common opponents: Missouri Rush — we 2–0; they 1–3. Kansas City Athletics — we 3–2; they 1–1. Michigan Hawks — we 1–7; they 0–7. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 4–4; they 3–2. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 0–3; they 0–6. Rockford Raptors FC — we 0–1; they 1–1. FC Wisconsin — we 0–2; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy, 0–1 vs Rockford Raptors FC, 0–2 vs FC Wisconsin.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 53% / draw 20% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Hy-Vee Multiplex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Chicago Inter – Sporting Iowa) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.60 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.60 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
1.30 PPG
8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 28%
  7. 7th 24%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks 3.00 (+1.56) 1st (2.80) 32 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 2.82 (+1.38) 2nd (2.69) 30 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Nationals SC 2.11 (+0.67) 3rd (2.02) 19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
4 Michigan Hawks Magic 2.00 (+0.56) 5th (1.85) 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
5 Gretna Elite Academy 1.91 (+0.47) 4th (2.00) 16 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection

How the results connect

74 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Chicago Inter to Sporting Iowa through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

45 favour us
11 even
18 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 1–1 4–4 2–3 1–7 7–0 3–2 1–1 0–2 0–1 0–3 6–0 2–0 3–1 0–2 4–0 0–4 4–1 1–2 4–0 0–2 0–0 Chicago Inter 6th Rockford Raptors FC 10th Michigan Hawks Magic 4th Michigan Hawks 1st Kansas City Athleti… 13th FC Wisconsin 12th St. Louis Scott Gal… 2nd Missouri Rush 9th Gretna Elite Academy 5th St. Louis Scott Gal… 7th Liverpool FC MI 16th Sporting Iowa 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.54 · 15th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM
Sporting Iowa
8th · 4-2-5 · GD -17
Away far trip
Hy-Vee Multiplex
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.80 1.48 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM
Gretna Elite Academy
5th · 6-3-2 · GD +16
Away far trip
HyVee Multiplex
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–2 0.51 1.39 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:45 AM
Nationals SC
3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +17
Away far trip
Oakland University Grizz Dome
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–2 0.46 1.31 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Liverpool FC MI
16th · 0-0-11 · GD -56
Away far trip
Avondale High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.78 1.43 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:15 PM
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green
7th · 5-0-6 · GD -5
Away far trip
WWT Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.39 1.42 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:45 AM
MN Thunder Academy
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Chicago Inter Complex
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.36 1.42 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks 101000 506+44 303.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.15 100% 1.4
2 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 111010 392+37 312.82 WWWDW -0.59 +1.12 100% 1.6
3 Nationals SC 9612 247+17 192.11 WWWLW -0.55 +0.55 76% 3.8
4 Michigan Hawks Magic 11713 4223+19 222.00 WLWWL -0.38 +0.81 37% 4.6
5 Gretna Elite Academy 11632 2711+16 211.91 DLLDW +0.14 -0.38 82% 3.8
6 Chicago Inter 9414 1722-5 131.44 DWLLL +0.44 -0.54 1% 7.8
7 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11506 1217-5 151.36 LLWLL -0.32 +1.02 0% 10.0
8 Sporting Iowa 11425 1128-17 141.27 DWLWL +0.32 -0.38 0% 10.6
9 Missouri Rush 12435 2322+1 151.25 WDWLD -0.26 +0.89 0% 9.6
10 Rockford Raptors FC 10325 1722-5 111.10 WDWLL +0.32 -0.37 0% 9.5
11 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 10316 1918+1 101.00 DWLLW +0.48 -0.80 0% 9.3
12 FC Wisconsin 10316 1119-8 101.00 WLWWD +0.18 -0.33 0% 11.4
13 Kansas City Athletics 12327 1231-19 110.92 DLDWW +0.15 -0.27 0% 13.5
14 Sporting Blue Valley 10127 929-20 50.50 LLDWL +0.17 -0.17 0% 14.9
15 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
16 Liverpool FC MI 110011 561-56 00.00 LLLLL +0.02 +0.79 0% 16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.