Gretna Elite Academy
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU17 · 16 teams · Gretna Elite Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.2 against · 2.05 expected points)
| Season so far | Gretna Elite Academy | Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Points per game | 1.91 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L L D | W L L W D |
| Biggest win | 8–1 at Liverpool FC MI | 6–0 vs FC Wisconsin |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at Michigan Hawks Magic | 0–5 vs Michigan Hawks |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.09 | +0.21 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.14 | +0.48 |
Common opponents: FC Wisconsin — we 2–0; they 6–0. Rockford Raptors FC — we 4–1; they 1–1. Nationals SC — we 0–0; they 1–2. Kansas City Athletics — we 3–0; they 0–1. Michigan Hawks — we 1–2; they 0–5. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 1–5; they 3–1. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 0–0; they 2–3. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 2–0; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Nationals SC, 0–0 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 62% / draw 19% / loss 19%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Michigan Hawks Magic sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.91.A win moves us above Michigan Hawks Magic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gretna Elite Academy – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.75 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 36%
- 4th 46%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 2%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 3.00 (+1.09) | 1st (2.80) | 24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 2.82 (+0.91) | 2nd (2.69) | 22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC | 2.11 (+0.20) | 3rd (2.02) | 11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 4 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 2.00 (+0.09) | 5th (1.85) | Win next game |
How the results connect
79 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Gretna Elite Academy to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.38 · 13th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 11th · 3-1-6 · GD +1 |
Home HyVee Multiplex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 1.92 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 08:00 AM |
Chicago Inter 6th · 4-1-4 · GD -5 |
Home HyVee Multiplex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.34 | 1.95 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 01:45 PM |
Sporting Blue Valley 14th · 1-2-7 · GD -20 |
Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.67 | 2.00 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 19 08:00 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 2.00 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 6 | +44 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.25 | -0.15 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Nov 1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sat Dec 5 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 2 | +37 | 31 | 2.82 | WWWDW | -0.59 | +1.12 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Hawks Magic · Sat Nov 21 at Missouri Rush See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 | 2.11 | WWWLW | -0.55 | +0.55 | 75% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Nov 8 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 23 | +19 | 22 | 2.00 | WLWWL | -0.38 | +0.81 | 37% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sun Nov 1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Dec 6 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gretna Elite Academy | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 21 | 1.91 | DLLDW | +0.14 | -0.38 | 82% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Chicago Inter | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 13 | 1.44 | DWLLL | +0.44 | -0.54 | 1% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Oct 25 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 15 | 1.36 | LLWLL | -0.32 | +1.02 | 0% | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Michigan Hawks Magic · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Inter See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Iowa | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 14 | 1.27 | DWLWL | +0.32 | -0.38 | 0% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Dec 12 at Sporting Blue Valley See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Missouri Rush | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 22 | +1 | 15 | 1.25 | WDWLD | -0.26 | +0.89 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Jan 17 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Rockford Raptors FC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 11 | 1.10 | WDWLL | +0.32 | -0.37 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 8 at Nationals SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 10 | 1.00 | DWLLW | +0.48 | -0.80 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa · Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Wisconsin | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 | 1.00 | WLWWD | +0.18 | -0.33 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Kansas City Athletics | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 31 | -19 | 11 | 0.92 | DLDWW | +0.15 | -0.27 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Nov 1 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 8 at MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Sporting Blue Valley | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 5 | 0.50 | LLDWL | +0.17 | -0.17 | 0% | 14.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Nov 7 at MN Thunder Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | MN Thunder Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 8 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 14 at Liverpool FC MI See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Liverpool FC MI | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 61 | -56 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.02 | +0.79 | 0% | 16.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 14 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.