South Carolina Surf

ECNL Girls · Mid-Atlantic GU17 · 11 teams · South Carolina Surf SC (all teams)

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9th

1-0-3 record · 4 played

0.75 points per game

-3 goal diff · 4–7

LLLWlast 4

2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3

+0.50 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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South Carolina Surf
9th · 0.75 PPG

Fairfax Virginia Union
1st · 3.00 PPG

Shea Family Fields, Field 3 ↗

18% 20% 62%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.2 against · 0.75 expected points)

Season so far	South Carolina Surf	Fairfax Virginia Union
Position	9th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-3	3-0-0
Points per game	0.75	3.00
Goals for / game	1.0	3.7
Goals against / game	1.8	0.7
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	W L L L	W W W
Biggest win	2–1 at Wilmington Hammerheads	7–0 vs NCFC Youth
Worst loss	0–2 vs Charlotte SA	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.25	+1.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.50	-0.93

Common opponents: Wilmington Hammerheads — we 2–1; they 1–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Fairfax Virginia Union score 3.7/game — well above the league's 1.7.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Fairfax Virginia Union concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Arlington Soccer Association, 0–2 vs Charlotte SA.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Fairfax Virginia Union have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
What a win does
Beach FC sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.
A point moves us above Beach FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fairfax Virginia Union game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Carolina Surf – Fairfax Virginia Union) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.60 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	10th▼ down 1
Win 1.20 PPG	7th▲ up 2	6th▲ up 3	9th— holds
Draw 0.80 PPG	9th— holds	8th▲ up 1	10th▼ down 1
Loss 0.60 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

2% top 4

98% below the top 4

7.3 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 1%
5th 4%
6th 15%
7th 38%
8th 24%
9th 13%
10th 5%
11th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Fairfax Virginia Union	3.00 (+2.25)	2nd (2.16)	27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Charlotte SA	3.00 (+2.25)	1st (2.52)	27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Arlington Soccer Association	2.17 (+1.42)	3rd (1.95)	19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
4	VDA	1.80 (+1.05)	4th (1.84)	15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
5	Richmond United	1.80 (+1.05)	5th (1.75)	15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
6	NCFC Youth NC Courage	1.75 (+1.00)	6th (1.62)	15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
7	NC Fusion	1.00 (+0.25)	9th (0.91)	A point next game
8	Beach FC	1.00 (+0.25)	8th (0.94)	A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link South Carolina Surf to Fairfax Virginia Union through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 10th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Fairfax Virginia Union 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.75	0.75	Upside
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Beach FC 8th · 1-2-2 · GD -6	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–1	1.79	0.92	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	NC Fusion 7th · 1-0-2 · GD -5	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	1–1	1.81	1.05	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM	Richmond United 5th · 3-0-2 · GD +8	Home Shea Family Fields	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.89	1.03	Upside
Sat Jan 23 01:00 PM	NCFC Youth NC Courage 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4	Away far trip WRAL	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.86	1.01	Upside
Sun Jan 24 11:00 AM	NCFC Youth 11th · 0-0-5 · GD -22	Away far trip WRAL	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.45	1.16	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Fairfax Virginia Union

3.00

WWW

-0.93

+0.25

86%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth (11th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Carolina Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Charlotte SA (2nd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	VDA (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Beach FC (8th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	NC Fusion (7th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Richmond United (5th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA

3.00

WWW

+0.50

-0.39

99%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	VDA (4th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth NC Courage See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NCFC Youth (11th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Beach FC (8th)	2–0	84%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NC Fusion (7th)	2–0	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

2.17

WWWLW

+0.10

-0.23

75%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Richmond United (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	VDA (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Beach FC (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sun Nov 15 at Fairfax Virginia Union See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Charlotte SA (2nd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NC Fusion (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	NCFC Youth (11th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VDA

1.80

LWWLW

-0.01

-0.17

63%

4.0

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Beach FC (8th)	6–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Charlotte SA (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NC Fusion (7th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth NC Courage · Sat Nov 7 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Richmond United (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NCFC Youth (11th)	4–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United

1.80

WWWLL

-0.43

+0.32

45%

4.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Beach FC (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	NC Fusion (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NCFC Youth (11th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth NC Courage · Sun Oct 25 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Nov 21 at South Carolina Surf See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	VDA (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth NC Courage

1.75

DLWW

-0.46

+0.22

30%

5.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	NCFC Youth (11th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Beach FC (8th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Richmond United · Sun Oct 25 vs VDA · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Richmond United (5th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	VDA (4th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Charlotte SA (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	NC Fusion (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-5

1.00

WLL

-0.22

+0.24

8.5

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Richmond United (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	VDA (4th)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	NCFC Youth (11th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Beach FC (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Charlotte SA (2nd)	0–2	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach FC

-6

1.00

DDWLL

+0.06

+0.13

8.5

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	VDA (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Richmond United (5th)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	NCFC Youth (11th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Wilmington Hammerheads See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NC Fusion (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Charlotte SA (2nd)	0–2	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina Surf

-3

0.75

LLLW

+0.50

-0.29

7.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Charlotte SA (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	VDA (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 vs NC Fusion See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach FC (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NC Fusion (7th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Richmond United (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	NCFC Youth (11th)	2–0	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

-5

0.00

LLL

+0.45

-0.09

9.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs VDA · Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United · Sat Oct 31 at Beach FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	VDA (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Richmond United (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NC Fusion (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Charlotte SA (2nd)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	NCFC Youth (11th)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth

-22

0.00

LLLLL

+0.19

+0.37

11.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (6th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Richmond United (5th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	NC Fusion (7th)	0–3

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Jan 17 vs VDA See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Charlotte SA (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	VDA (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (10th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	0–2	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.