Result · Sunday, Oct 4, 01:00 PM
Arlington Soccer Association 2–3 NCFC Youth NC Courage
Long Bridge Park · Boeing #4 ↗ · 22202
Final
By today's ratings the model gave this result a 30% chance — a mild surprise. Pre-match odds were 48% home, 22% draw, 30% away, most likely 1–1.
| Season so far | Arlington Soccer Association | NCFC Youth NC Courage |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-1 | 2-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.17 | 1.75 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W W | W W L D |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs Wilmington Hammerheads | 4–0 vs NCFC Youth |
| Worst loss | 2–3 vs NCFC Youth NC Courage | 2–3 at Fairfax Virginia Union |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.53 | +0.45 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.10 | -0.46 |
Already met this season: Oct 4 2–3 (home for Arlington Soccer Association)
Common opponents: Beach FC — Arlington Soccer Association 1–1; NCFC Youth NC Courage 2–2.
What's at stake
| Arlington Soccer Association | NCFC Youth NC Courage | |
|---|---|---|
| Position now | 3rd | 6th |
| Games left | 4 | 6 |
| Chance of top 4 | 75% | 29% |
| Chance of 1st | 4% | 1% |
| Average finish | 3.6 | 5.3 |
How the results connect
7 chains
4 favour Arlington Soccer Association, 2 favour NCFC Youth NC Courage, 1 even; average margin +2.0 goals toward Arlington Soccer Association.
- -1Arlington Soccer Association lost to NCFC Youth NC Courage 2–3
- 0Arlington Soccer Association drew with Beach FC 1–1 → Beach FC drew with NCFC Youth NC Courage 2–2
- -1Arlington Soccer Association drew with Beach FC 1–1 → Beach FC beat NCFC Youth 3–0 → NCFC Youth lost to NCFC Youth NC Courage 0–4
- +2Arlington Soccer Association beat Richmond United 2–1 → Richmond United beat NCFC Youth 5–0 → NCFC Youth lost to NCFC Youth NC Courage 0–4
- +3Arlington Soccer Association beat Wilmington Hammerheads 4–1 → Wilmington Hammerheads lost to Fairfax Virginia Union 0–1 → Fairfax Virginia Union beat NCFC Youth NC Courage 3–2
- +5Arlington Soccer Association beat Richmond United 2–1 → Richmond United beat Beach FC 4–0 → Beach FC drew with NCFC Youth NC Courage 2–2
Full picture: Arlington Soccer Association · NCFC Youth NC Courage · Mid-Atlantic GU17 standings