NC Fusion
ECNL Girls · Mid-Atlantic GU17 · 11 teams · NC Fusion (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Truist Soccer Complex at Bryan Park, BP 03 Wrangler ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.7 against · 1.49 expected points)
| Season so far | NC Fusion | Beach FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 1-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W | L L W D D |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at NCFC Youth | 3–0 vs NCFC Youth |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at VDA | 1–6 vs VDA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.80 | -0.79 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.22 | +0.06 |
Common opponents: NCFC Youth — we 3–0; they 3–0. VDA — we 0–5; they 1–6. Richmond United — we 0–3; they 0–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 at VDA, 0–3 at Richmond United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 42% / draw 22% / loss 36%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Beach FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NC Fusion – Beach FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
9th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 15%
- 8th 26%
- 9th 27%
- 10th 26%
- 11th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 3.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (2.16) | 27 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 2 | Charlotte SA | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.52) | 27 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Arlington Soccer Association | 2.17 (+1.17) | 3rd (1.95) | 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | VDA | 1.80 (+0.80) | 4th (1.84) | 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 5 | Richmond United | 1.80 (+0.80) | 5th (1.75) | 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 6 | NCFC Youth NC Courage | 1.75 (+0.75) | 6th (1.62) | 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link NC Fusion to Beach FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.24 · 4th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Beach FC 8th · 1-2-2 · GD -6 |
Home Truist Soccer Complex at Bryan Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.12 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Arlington Soccer Association 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home Truist Soccer Complex at Bryan Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.97 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
Wilmington Hammerheads 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
NCINO Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
NCFC Youth NC Courage 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
Fairfax Virginia Union 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–2 | 0.49 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 TBD |
Charlotte SA 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.40 | 0.91 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.93 | +0.25 | 88% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Carolina Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Charlotte SA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.50 | -0.39 | 99% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth NC Courage See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arlington Soccer Association | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWLW | +0.10 | -0.23 | 75% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sun Nov 15 at Fairfax Virginia Union See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | VDA | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWLW | -0.01 | -0.17 | 62% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth NC Courage · Sat Nov 7 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Richmond United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 9 | 1.80 | WWWLL | -0.43 | +0.32 | 45% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth NC Courage · Sun Oct 25 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Nov 21 at South Carolina Surf See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NCFC Youth NC Courage | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | DLWW | -0.46 | +0.22 | 29% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Richmond United · Sun Oct 25 vs VDA · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | NC Fusion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | -0.22 | +0.24 | 1% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Beach FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 | 1.00 | DDWLL | +0.06 | +0.13 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Wilmington Hammerheads See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina Surf | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.50 | -0.29 | 2% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 vs NC Fusion See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.45 | -0.09 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs VDA · Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United · Sat Oct 31 at Beach FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | NCFC Youth | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 22 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.19 | +0.37 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Jan 17 vs VDA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.