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Beach Futbol Club

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU16 · 13 teams · Beach Futbol Club (all teams)

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8th
1-1-2 record · 4 played
1.00 points per game
-1 goal diff · 7–8
WLLDlast 4
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.4
+0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:00 PM

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Beach Futbol Club
8th · 1.00 PPG
at
Rebels SC
3rd · 2.25 PPG

Monte Vista High School, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.3 against · 0.94 expected points)

Season so farBeach Futbol ClubRebels SC
Position8th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-1-23-0-1
Points per game1.002.25
Goals for / game1.82.3
Goals against / game2.01.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D L L WW W L W
Biggest win4–2 vs San Diego Surf4–2 at LA Breakers FC
Worst loss0–2 at Pateadores Soccer Club1–2 vs LAFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.13+0.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.14-0.21

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–2 vs Rebels SC (L)

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Pateadores Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:00 PM at Monte Vista High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Sporting California USA sit 7th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Sporting California USA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach Futbol Club – Rebels SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.80 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 5
Win
1.40 PPG
7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Loss
0.80 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
7.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 40%
  8. 8th 20%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAFC 2.40 (+1.40) 3rd (1.97) 54 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 2.33 (+1.33) 1st (2.21) 52 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
3 Rebels SC 2.25 (+1.25) 5th (1.74) 50 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 CDA Slammers FC 2.17 (+1.17) 2nd (2.13) 49 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
5 LV Heat Surf SC 1.88 (+0.88) 4th (1.75) 42 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
6 SDSC Surf 1.40 (+0.40) 6th (1.68) Win next game
7 Sporting California USA 1.25 (+0.25) 9th (1.02) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Beach Futbol Club to Rebels SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 2–2 2–1 1–2 0–2 3–1 4–2 0–0 2–4 Beach Futbol Club 8th San Diego Surf 9th Pateadores Soccer C… 2nd Legends FC 13th LA Breakers FC 10th Rebels SC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 29 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 7th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
01:00 PM
no score posted
SDSC Surf
6th · 2-1-2 · GD +2
Home
El Camino College
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 1.04 Upside
Sat Oct 24
06:00 PM
Rebels SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.94 1.02 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -8
Home
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 1.16 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
LAFC
1st · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Home
El Camino College
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.93 1.13 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:30 PM
West Coast FC
11th · 0-3-2 · GD -8
Away far trip
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.80 1.20 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:45 AM
SDSC Surf
6th · 2-1-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Westview High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.94 1.18 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +12
Home
El Camino College
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.67 1.13 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
10th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Home
El Camino College
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.86 1.19 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
5th · 4-3-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 0.97 1.17 Upside
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM
West Coast FC
11th · 0-3-2 · GD -8
Home
El Camino College
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.05 1.24 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:30 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -8
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.69 1.27 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +11
Away
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.53 1.22 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LAFC
1st · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.70 1.19 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
Legends FC
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -8
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.70 1.22 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
LV Heat Surf SC
5th · 4-3-1 · GD +3
Home
El Camino College
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.22 1.22 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Sporting California USA
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.58 1.24 Swing game
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +11
Home
El Camino College
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.73 1.21 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
LA Breakers FC
10th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.59 1.23 Swing game
Sat May 22
01:00 PM
Legends FC
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -8
Home
El Camino College
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.96 1.26 Swing game
Sat May 29
01:00 PM
Sporting California USA
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -4
Home
El Camino College
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 1.29 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC 5401 135+8 122.40 LWWWW -0.39 -0.01 82% 3.2
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 6420 153+12 142.33 DWWWD -0.23 -0.07 98% 1.8
3 Rebels SC 4301 96+3 92.25 WLWW -0.21 -0.02 46% 4.6
4 CDA Slammers FC 6411 165+11 132.17 WWLWW -0.21 -0.08 96% 2.1
5 LV Heat Surf SC 8431 1310+3 151.88 WWWLD +0.19 -0.13 41% 4.8
6 SDSC Surf 5212 97+2 71.40 WDLWL +0.56 -0.20 34% 5.1
7 Sporting California USA 4121 59-4 51.25 DLWD -0.41 +0.12 0% 9.3
8 Beach Futbol Club 4112 78-1 41.00 WLLD +0.14 -0.03 3% 7.4
9 San Diego Surf 4112 610-4 41.00 LWLD -0.18 +0.08 0% 9.3
10 LA Breakers FC 6123 713-6 50.83 DLDLL +0.26 -0.03 0% 9.7
11 West Coast FC 5032 412-8 30.60 DDLLD +0.20 +0.02 0% 11.3
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6105 816-8 30.50 LLLLW +0.06 +0.05 0% 11.1
13 Legends FC 5005 513-8 00.00 LLLLL +0.48 -0.05 0% 11.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.