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LAFC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU16 · 13 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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1st
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+8 goal diff · 13–5
LWWWWlast 5
82% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2
-0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:15 PM

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LAFC
1st · 2.40 PPG
at
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0.50 PPG

Canyon Crest Academy, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.2 against · 2.26 expected points)

Season so farLAFCLegends FC Del Mar
Position1st12th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-11-0-5
Points per game2.400.50
Goals for / game2.61.3
Goals against / game1.02.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W W LW L L L L
Biggest win6–0 vs West Coast FC3–1 at LA Breakers FC
Worst loss1–3 vs SDSC Surf1–5 vs CDA Slammers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.84-0.86
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.39+0.06

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 2–0 vs Legends FC Del Mar (W)

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Legends FC Del Mar concede 2.7/game; worst result 1–5 vs CDA Slammers FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:15 PM at Canyon Crest Academy.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC – Legends FC Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Win
2.50 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Draw
2.17 PPG
4th▼ down 3 2nd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 3 3rd▼ down 2 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

12% finish 1st
82% top 4
18% below the top 4
3.2 average finish
  1. 1st 12%
  2. 2nd 20%
  3. 3rd 31%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

10 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC to Legends FC Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 1–3 0–2 5–1 2–1 4–2 1–3 2–2 0–1 2–1 3–1 6–0 2–2 2–2 3–2 0–0 0–2 LAFC 1st SDSC Surf 6th Rebels SC 3rd West Coast FC 11th CDA Slammers FC 4th LA Breakers FC 10th LV Heat Surf SC 5th Sporting California… 7th Legends FC Del Mar 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 29 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:15 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -8
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.26 2.38 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
SDSC Surf
6th · 2-1-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Westview High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.52 2.25 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Rebels SC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.83 2.20 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -1
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.86 2.16 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.94 2.04 Upside
Sun Nov 15
04:30 PM
San Diego Surf
9th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.36 2.07 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +11
Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.28 2.00 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +12
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.17 1.94 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
West Coast FC
11th · 0-3-2 · GD -8
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–0 2.30 1.97 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +11
Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.03 1.90 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.12 1.92 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Sporting California USA
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.93 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM
LV Heat Surf SC
5th · 4-3-1 · GD +3
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.78 1.92 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
LA Breakers FC
10th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.36 1.94 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 PM
San Diego Surf
9th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.95 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
5th · 4-3-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.53 1.93 Swing game
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
Legends FC
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -8
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.24 1.95 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Sporting California USA
7th · 1-2-1 · GD -4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.37 1.97 Bank it
Sat Jun 5
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
10th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.14 1.97 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC 5401 135+8 122.40 LWWWW -0.39 -0.01 82% 3.2
2 Pateadores Soccer Club 6420 153+12 142.33 DWWWD -0.23 -0.07 98% 1.8
3 Rebels SC 4301 96+3 92.25 WLWW -0.21 -0.02 45% 4.6
4 CDA Slammers FC 6411 165+11 132.17 WWLWW -0.21 -0.08 97% 2.1
5 LV Heat Surf SC 8431 1310+3 151.88 WWWLD +0.19 -0.13 42% 4.7
6 SDSC Surf 5212 97+2 71.40 WDLWL +0.56 -0.20 34% 5.0
7 Sporting California USA 4121 59-4 51.25 DLWD -0.41 +0.12 0% 9.4
8 Beach Futbol Club 4112 78-1 41.00 WLLD +0.14 -0.03 2% 7.5
9 San Diego Surf 4112 610-4 41.00 LWLD -0.18 +0.08 0% 9.3
10 LA Breakers FC 6123 713-6 50.83 DLDLL +0.26 -0.03 0% 9.7
11 West Coast FC 5032 412-8 30.60 DDLLD +0.20 +0.02 0% 11.3
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6105 816-8 30.50 LLLLW +0.06 +0.05 0% 11.1
13 Legends FC 5005 513-8 00.00 LLLLL +0.48 -0.05 0% 11.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.