Folsom Lake Surf
ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU14 · 17 teams · Folsom Lake Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 14 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.3 against · 1.93 expected points)
| Season so far | Folsom Lake Surf | Placer United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-4 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L L | D W W L L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs Napa United | 2–0 vs San Juan SC |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at COSC | 0–5 at Santa Clara Sporting |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.25 | -0.82 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.25 | -0.05 |
Common opponents: El Camino FC Salinas — we 0–3; they 1–3. COSC — we 0–4; they 1–5. Santa Clara Sporting — we 5–2; they 0–5.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Placer United concede 2.3/game; worst result 0–5 at Santa Clara Sporting.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 at Mustang Soccer, 0–1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club, 0–3 vs El Camino FC Salinas, 0–4 at COSC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 20% / loss 22%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Association FC B12/13 sit 11th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Association FC B12/13 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Placer United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Folsom Lake Surf – Placer United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.29 PPG |
10th▲ up 2 | 10th▲ up 2 | 10th▲ up 2 |
| Win 1.29 PPG |
10th▲ up 2 | 10th▲ up 2 | 10th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 15th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.86 PPG |
13th▼ down 1 | 12th— holds | 15th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 10%
- 10th 11%
- 11th 17%
- 12th 16%
- 13th 12%
- 14th 8%
- 15th 5%
- 16th 2%
- 17th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marin FC | 2.50 (+1.50) | 1st (2.28) | 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | COSC | 2.29 (+1.29) | 2nd (2.13) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | Mustang Soccer | 2.14 (+1.14) | 3rd (1.86) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 4 | River Islands Surf | 2.00 (+1.00) | 4th (1.78) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 5 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 1.88 (+0.88) | 7th (1.55) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | El Camino FC Salinas | 1.71 (+0.71) | 5th (1.69) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 7 | 1974 Newark FC | 1.67 (+0.67) | 6th (1.59) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 8 | Napa United | 1.63 (+0.63) | 9th (1.50) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 9 | Davis Legacy | 1.33 (+0.33) | 8th (1.50) | 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 10 | Placer United | 1.17 (+0.17) | 15th (0.98) | A point next game |
| 11 | Association FC B12/13 | 1.00 (+0.00) | 10th (1.36) | A point next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Folsom Lake Surf to Placer United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 14th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Placer United 10th · 2-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.13 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM |
MVLA 16th · 0-3-3 · GD -8 |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 10:30 AM |
Marin FC 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.70 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
1974 Newark FC 7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Newark Sportsfield Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 1.14 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:00 AM |
Davis Legacy 9th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.29 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM |
Association FC B12/13 11th · 2-1-4 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.01 | 1.14 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
San Francisco Elite Academy 17th · 0-2-5 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 1.18 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM |
Santa Rosa United 15th · 1-2-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Trione Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
River Islands Surf 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +3 |
Home Livermore Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
San Juan SC 13th · 2-0-4 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.56 | 1.21 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Marin FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | +0.08 | -0.20 | 98% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | COSC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 16 | 2.29 | WLWDW | -0.15 | +0.01 | 94% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mustang Soccer | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWL | +0.04 | -0.10 | 61% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | River Islands Surf | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 14 | 2.00 | WWWDW | +0.01 | -0.05 | 50% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Fri Dec 25 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 15 | 1.88 | WWWLL | -0.10 | +0.10 | 12% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 15 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 12 | 1.71 | LWWDD | -0.17 | +0.08 | 35% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 8 vs Mustang Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | 1974 Newark FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 | 1.67 | DWLLW | -0.37 | +0.18 | 23% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Napa United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 13 | 1.63 | WWDLW | -0.05 | +0.04 | 10% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 at COSC · Sat Mar 20 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | WWLLD | +0.39 | -0.24 | 12% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 vs MVLA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Placer United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 | 1.17 | LLWWD | -0.05 | +0.07 | 0% | 13.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 at Association FC B12/13 See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Association FC B12/13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.00 | LLLDL | +0.30 | -0.23 | 4% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Folsom Lake Surf | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLLW | +0.25 | -0.14 | 1% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 vs Marin FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | San Juan SC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLWL | +0.11 | -0.00 | 0% | 13.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Association FC B12/13 · Sun Nov 8 at San Francisco Elite Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Santa Clara Sporting | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | LWDLL | -0.29 | +0.16 | 0% | 12.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Association FC B12/13 · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Santa Rosa United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Santa Rosa United | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 5 | 0.71 | DLLLW | +0.07 | -0.02 | 0% | 13.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sat Mar 13 vs San Juan SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | MVLA | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 3 | 0.50 | DLDLD | -0.13 | +0.12 | 0% | 15.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 1 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Davis Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLLD | +0.17 | -0.05 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.