TableChase Clubs

Napa United

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU14 · 17 teams · Napa United (all teams)

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8th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
-2 goal diff · 8–10
WWWDLlast 5
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.8
-0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:15 AM

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Napa United
8th · 1.43 PPG
vs
Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 2.14 PPG

Vintage High School, Football Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.34 expected points)

Season so farNapa UnitedLos Gatos United Soccer Club
Position8th4th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-35-0-2
Points per game1.432.14
Goals for / game1.11.6
Goals against / game1.41.4
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L D W W WL W W W W
Biggest win2–0 vs Santa Rosa United2–0 vs MVLA
Worst loss1–4 at Folsom Lake Surf1–4 at Marin FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.18+0.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.03-0.12

Common opponents: Folsom Lake Surf — we 1–4; they 1–0. Davis Legacy — we 1–2; they 3–2. Association FC B12/13 — we 2–1; they 1–0. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–0; they 2–1. Santa Rosa United — we 2–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at 1974 Newark FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Los Gatos United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Napa United – Los Gatos United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.38 PPG		 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2
Win
1.63 PPG		 8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
1.38 PPG		 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2
Loss
1.25 PPG		 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
9.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 17%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 10%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Marin FC 2.50 (+1.07) 1st (2.29) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 COSC 2.29 (+0.86) 2nd (2.13) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Mustang Soccer 2.14 (+0.71) 3rd (1.86) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 2.14 (+0.71) 5th (1.70) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
5 River Islands Surf 2.00 (+0.57) 4th (1.77) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
6 El Camino FC Salinas 1.71 (+0.28) 6th (1.69) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
7 1974 Newark FC 1.67 (+0.24) 7th (1.58) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

15 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Napa United to Los Gatos United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
6 even
4 favour them
+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–2 2–1 0–1 1–2 2–3 2–0 3–1 1–4 0–1 0–2 3–0 1–1 1–1 2–1 1–2 1–1 1–1 Napa United 8th San Francisco Elite… 17th Association FC B12/… 11th Davis Legacy 9th Santa Rosa United 15th Folsom Lake Surf 12th 1974 Newark FC 7th River Islands Surf 5th Los Gatos United So… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:15 AM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +1		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.34 1.42 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 0–1 0.85 1.35 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 COSC
2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +13		 Away far trip
Clovis High School 		●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–2 0.57 1.28 Upside
Sat Mar 20
11:15 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
14th · 1-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.57 1.30 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 San Juan SC
13th · 2-0-4 · GD -8		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.55 1.32 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:15 AM		 Placer United
10th · 2-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 1–1 1.87 1.37 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 MVLA
16th · 0-3-3 · GD -8		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.62 1.38 Swing game
Sat May 1
11:15 AM		 Marin FC
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +11		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.77 1.34 Upside
Sat May 8
11:15 AM		 Mustang Soccer
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +4		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.14 1.33 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Marin FC 6501 187+11 152.50 WWWWW +0.11 -0.22 98% 1.6
2 COSC 7511 218+13 162.29 WLWDW -0.15 +0.00 93% 2.3
3 Mustang Soccer 7502 139+4 152.14 LWWWL +0.04 -0.10 59% 4.3
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7502 1110+1 152.14 WWWWL -0.12 +0.07 32% 5.9
5 River Islands Surf 7421 118+3 142.00 WWWDW -0.02 -0.02 44% 5.2
6 El Camino FC Salinas 7331 94+5 121.71 LWWDD -0.17 +0.08 35% 5.7
7 1974 Newark FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DWLLW -0.42 +0.21 19% 6.9
8 Napa United 7313 810-2 101.43 WWWDL -0.03 +0.05 2% 9.8
9 Davis Legacy 6222 77+0 81.33 WWLLD +0.39 -0.24 12% 7.7
10 Placer United 6213 614-8 71.17 LLWWD -0.05 +0.07 0% 13.4
11 Association FC B12/13 7214 98+1 71.00 LLLDL +0.30 -0.23 4% 9.2
12 Folsom Lake Surf 6204 912-3 61.00 LLLLW +0.26 -0.14 1% 10.8
13 San Juan SC 6204 1018-8 61.00 WLLWL +0.11 -0.00 0% 13.3
14 Santa Clara Sporting 5113 1012-2 40.80 LWDLL -0.28 +0.16 0% 12.7
15 Santa Rosa United 7124 913-4 50.71 DLLLW +0.07 -0.02 0% 12.9
16 MVLA 6033 715-8 30.50 DLDLD -0.10 +0.10 0% 15.4
17 San Francisco Elite Academy 7025 513-8 20.29 LLLLD +0.17 -0.05 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.