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Mustang Soccer

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU14 · 17 teams · Mustang Soccer (all teams)

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3rd
5-0-2 record · 7 played
2.14 points per game
+4 goal diff · 13–9
LWWWLlast 5
57% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5
+0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Mustang Soccer
3rd · 2.14 PPG
at
1974 Newark FC
7th · 1.67 PPG

Newark Sportsfield Park, SFT #1 11v11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.6 against · 1.21 expected points)

Season so farMustang Soccer1974 Newark FC
Position3rd7th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-23-1-2
Points per game2.141.67
Goals for / game1.91.8
Goals against / game1.31.0
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L W W W LW L L W D
Biggest win3–1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy5–1 at San Juan SC
Worst loss1–2 vs Davis Legacy0–3 at River Islands Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.38+0.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.04-0.42

Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 3–1; they 3–0. Santa Rosa United — we 3–2; they 1–1. River Islands Surf — we 0–1; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs River Islands Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Newark Sportsfield Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the 1974 Newark FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mustang Soccer – 1974 Newark FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2
Win
2.25 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2
Loss
1.88 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
57% top 4
44% below the top 4
4.5 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Marin FC 2.50 (+0.36) 1st (2.29) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
2 COSC 2.29 (+0.15) 2nd (2.13) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

19 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Mustang Soccer to 1974 Newark FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
1 even
8 favour them
+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 1–1 3–1 0–3 0–1 3–0 3–2 5–2 1–5 3–1 0–1 0–2 1–1 2–1 2–1 1–2 1–2 1–1 Mustang Soccer 3rd Santa Rosa United 15th San Francisco Elite… 17th River Islands Surf 5th Marin FC 1st Association FC B12/… 11th Davis Legacy 9th San Juan SC 13th Napa United 8th 1974 Newark FC 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 13th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 1974 Newark FC
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5		 Away
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.21 2.03 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Monta Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.46 1.96 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 0–1 1.11 1.88 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 COSC
2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +13		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.09 1.81 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Santa Clara Sporting
14th · 1-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 2.00 1.82 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 San Juan SC
13th · 2-0-4 · GD -8		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.25 1.86 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
03:00 PM		 Placer United
10th · 2-1-3 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.03 1.87 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 MVLA
16th · 0-3-3 · GD -8		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.02 1.88 Swing game
Sat May 8
11:15 AM		 Napa United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Away
Vintage High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.61 1.86 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Marin FC 6501 187+11 152.50 WWWWW +0.11 -0.22 98% 1.6
2 COSC 7511 218+13 162.29 WLWDW -0.15 +0.00 93% 2.3
3 Mustang Soccer 7502 139+4 152.14 LWWWL +0.04 -0.10 57% 4.5
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7502 1110+1 152.14 WWWWL -0.12 +0.07 32% 5.9
5 River Islands Surf 7421 118+3 142.00 WWWDW -0.02 -0.02 47% 5.0
6 El Camino FC Salinas 7331 94+5 121.71 LWWDD -0.17 +0.08 35% 5.7
7 1974 Newark FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DWLLW -0.42 +0.21 20% 6.8
8 Napa United 7313 810-2 101.43 WWWDL -0.03 +0.05 2% 9.8
9 Davis Legacy 6222 77+0 81.33 WWLLD +0.39 -0.24 11% 7.8
10 Placer United 6213 614-8 71.17 LLWWD -0.05 +0.07 0% 13.5
11 Association FC B12/13 7214 98+1 71.00 LLLDL +0.30 -0.23 3% 9.1
12 Folsom Lake Surf 6204 912-3 61.00 LLLLW +0.26 -0.14 1% 10.8
13 San Juan SC 6204 1018-8 61.00 WLLWL +0.11 -0.00 0% 13.3
14 Santa Clara Sporting 5113 1012-2 40.80 LWDLL -0.28 +0.16 0% 12.7
15 Santa Rosa United 7124 913-4 50.71 DLLLW +0.07 -0.02 0% 13.0
16 MVLA 6033 715-8 30.50 DLDLD -0.10 +0.10 0% 15.4
17 San Francisco Elite Academy 7025 513-8 20.29 LLLLD +0.17 -0.05 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.