TableChase Clubs

1974 Newark FC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU14 · 17 teams · 1974 Newark FC (all teams)

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7th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
+5 goal diff · 11–6
DWLLWlast 5
21% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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1974 Newark FC
7th · 1.67 PPG
vs
Mustang Soccer
3rd · 2.14 PPG

Newark Sportsfield Park, SFT #1 11v11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.3 against · 1.54 expected points)

Season so far1974 Newark FCMustang Soccer
Position7th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-25-0-2
Points per game1.672.14
Goals for / game1.81.9
Goals against / game1.01.3
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W L L W DL W W W L
Biggest win5–1 at San Juan SC3–1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy
Worst loss0–3 at River Islands Surf1–2 vs Davis Legacy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.41+0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.42+0.04

Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 3–0; they 3–1. Santa Rosa United — we 1–1; they 3–2. River Islands Surf — we 0–3; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at River Islands Surf, 0–1 at Placer United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 43% / draw 25% / loss 32%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    El Camino FC Salinas sit 6th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above El Camino FC Salinas on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mustang Soccer game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (1974 Newark FC – Mustang Soccer) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.57 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Win
1.86 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
1.57 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Loss
1.43 PPG		 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
21% top 4
80% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Marin FC 2.50 (+0.83) 1st (2.29) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 COSC 2.29 (+0.62) 2nd (2.13) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Mustang Soccer 2.14 (+0.47) 3rd (1.86) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 2.14 (+0.47) 5th (1.70) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
5 River Islands Surf 2.00 (+0.33) 4th (1.77) 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
6 El Camino FC Salinas 1.71 (+0.04) 6th (1.69) A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link 1974 Newark FC to Mustang Soccer through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
1 even
10 favour them
-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–3 3–0 1–3 0–3 1–0 5–1 2–5 2–3 2–0 1–0 1–3 1–4 0–1 1–2 2–1 2–1 1–2 1–1 1–2 1974 Newark FC 7th Santa Rosa United 15th San Francisco Elite… 17th River Islands Surf 5th San Juan SC 13th Napa United 8th Marin FC 1st Folsom Lake Surf 12th Davis Legacy 9th Association FC B12/… 11th Mustang Soccer 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 1st hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Mustang Soccer
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +4		 Home
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.54 1.65 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Marin FC
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +11		 Away far trip
College of Marin · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.90 1.56 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Monta Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.49 1.55 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
12th · 2-0-4 · GD -3		 Home
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.95 1.59 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
11:00 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
14th · 1-1-3 · GD -2		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.75 1.60 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 El Camino FC Salinas
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
28%		 0–1 1.15 1.56 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
9th · 2-2-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.44 1.56 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 COSC
2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +13		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.14 1.53 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Association FC B12/13
11th · 2-1-4 · GD +1		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.63 1.53 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 MVLA
16th · 0-3-3 · GD -8		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–0 2.26 1.58 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Marin FC 6501 187+11 152.50 WWWWW +0.11 -0.22 98% 1.6
2 COSC 7511 218+13 162.29 WLWDW -0.15 +0.00 92% 2.3
3 Mustang Soccer 7502 139+4 152.14 LWWWL +0.04 -0.10 58% 4.4
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7502 1110+1 152.14 WWWWL -0.12 +0.07 31% 5.9
5 River Islands Surf 7421 118+3 142.00 WWWDW -0.02 -0.02 45% 5.1
6 El Camino FC Salinas 7331 94+5 121.71 LWWDD -0.17 +0.08 35% 5.7
7 1974 Newark FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DWLLW -0.42 +0.21 21% 6.9
8 Napa United 7313 810-2 101.43 WWWDL -0.03 +0.05 3% 9.7
9 Davis Legacy 6222 77+0 81.33 WWLLD +0.39 -0.24 11% 7.8
10 Placer United 6213 614-8 71.17 LLWWD -0.05 +0.07 0% 13.5
11 Association FC B12/13 7214 98+1 71.00 LLLDL +0.30 -0.23 4% 9.1
12 Folsom Lake Surf 6204 912-3 61.00 LLLLW +0.26 -0.14 1% 10.8
13 San Juan SC 6204 1018-8 61.00 WLLWL +0.11 -0.00 0% 13.3
14 Santa Clara Sporting 5113 1012-2 40.80 LWDLL -0.28 +0.16 1% 12.8
15 Santa Rosa United 7124 913-4 50.71 DLLLW +0.07 -0.02 0% 12.9
16 MVLA 6033 715-8 30.50 DLDLD -0.10 +0.10 0% 15.4
17 San Francisco Elite Academy 7025 513-8 20.29 LLLLD +0.17 -0.05 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.