TableChase Clubs

COSC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU14 · 17 teams · California Odyssey Soccer Club (all teams)

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2nd
5-1-1 record · 7 played
2.29 points per game
+13 goal diff · 21–8
WLWDWlast 5
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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COSC
2nd · 2.29 PPG
vs
Santa Rosa United
15th · 0.71 PPG

Clovis High School , Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.1 against · 2.40 expected points)

Season so farCOSCSanta Rosa United
Position2nd15th
Record (W-D-L)5-1-11-2-4
Points per game2.290.71
Goals for / game3.01.3
Goals against / game1.11.9
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W D W L WW L L L D
Biggest win6–1 vs MVLA3–1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club
Worst loss0–4 at Marin FC1–3 vs River Islands Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.16-0.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15+0.07

Common opponents: Association FC B12/13 — we 2–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Marin FC, 0–0 at Davis Legacy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Rosa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (COSC – Santa Rosa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.38 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.38 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.13 PPG		 4th▼ down 2 2nd— holds 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 2 2nd— holds 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

29% finish 1st
93% top 4
7% below the top 4
2.3 average finish
  1. 1st 29%
  2. 2nd 40%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Marin FC 2.50 (+0.21) 1st (2.29) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

17 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link COSC to Santa Rosa United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
5 favour them
+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 2–1 1–2 3–2 4–0 0–1 1–3 6–1 0–2 4–1 1–5 1–1 1–2 2–0 0–1 0–0 1–1 3–1 2–1 2–1 2–3 0–4 4–1 COSC 2nd Association FC B12/… 11th Folsom Lake Surf 12th MVLA 16th San Juan SC 13th Davis Legacy 9th Marin FC 1st Mustang Soccer 3rd Los Gatos United So… 4th 1974 Newark FC 7th Napa United 8th River Islands Surf 5th Santa Rosa United 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
15th · 1-2-4 · GD -4		 Home
Clovis High School 		●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 3–1 2.40 2.30 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 River Islands Surf
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +3		 Away far trip
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.69 2.23 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 Napa United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
Clovis High School 		●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–0 2.26 2.24 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +4		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–1 1.69 2.19 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +1		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.91 2.16 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
02:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Home
Clovis High School 		●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.69 2.13 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.63 2.09 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
14th · 1-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
Clovis High School 		●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.44 2.11 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
17th · 0-2-5 · GD -8		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–0 2.38 2.13 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Marin FC 6501 187+11 152.50 WWWWW +0.11 -0.22 98% 1.6
2 COSC 7511 218+13 162.29 WLWDW -0.15 +0.00 93% 2.3
3 Mustang Soccer 7502 139+4 152.14 LWWWL +0.04 -0.10 61% 4.4
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7502 1110+1 152.14 WWWWL -0.12 +0.07 29% 6.0
5 River Islands Surf 7421 118+3 142.00 WWWDW -0.02 -0.02 47% 5.0
6 El Camino FC Salinas 7331 94+5 121.71 LWWDD -0.17 +0.08 32% 5.8
7 1974 Newark FC 6312 116+5 101.67 DWLLW -0.42 +0.21 21% 6.8
8 Napa United 7313 810-2 101.43 WWWDL -0.03 +0.05 3% 9.7
9 Davis Legacy 6222 77+0 81.33 WWLLD +0.39 -0.24 11% 7.7
10 Placer United 6213 614-8 71.17 LLWWD -0.05 +0.07 0% 13.4
11 Association FC B12/13 7214 98+1 71.00 LLLDL +0.30 -0.23 4% 9.1
12 Folsom Lake Surf 6204 912-3 61.00 LLLLW +0.26 -0.14 1% 11.0
13 San Juan SC 6204 1018-8 61.00 WLLWL +0.11 -0.00 0% 13.3
14 Santa Clara Sporting 5113 1012-2 40.80 LWDLL -0.28 +0.16 1% 12.6
15 Santa Rosa United 7124 913-4 50.71 DLLLW +0.07 -0.02 0% 13.0
16 MVLA 6033 715-8 30.50 DLDLD -0.10 +0.10 0% 15.4
17 San Francisco Elite Academy 7025 513-8 20.29 LLLLD +0.17 -0.05 0% 15.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.