TableChase Clubs

EMPIRE SC

Elite Academy League 2 · South U12 · 14 teams · EMPIRE SC (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+8 goal diff · 17–9
WWWWlast 4
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:30 PM

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EMPIRE SC
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
10th · 1.20 PPG

Eastvale Community Park, Short Sided Field 14 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 5.4 for, 2.3 against · 2.54 expected points)

Season so farEMPIRE SCSporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Position1st10th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-0-3
Points per game3.001.20
Goals for / game4.32.8
Goals against / game2.34.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W WL L W L W
Biggest win6–3 vs ALBION SC Riverside 28–0 vs Fram Soccer Club 2
Worst loss—1–11 vs Laguna United 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.15-1.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06+0.36

Common opponents: ALBION SC Riverside 2 — we 6–3; they 1–7. Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 — we 3–1; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club concede 4.8/game; worst result 1–11 vs Laguna United 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 5–2.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (EMPIRE SC – Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.40 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
93% top 4
7% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 47%
  3. 3rd 32%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link EMPIRE SC to Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 3–0 6–3 7–1 4–3 7–0 0–8 2–5 3–4 4–2 0–8 11–1 2–2 6–1 1–2 EMPIRE SC 1st Total Futbol Academ… 4th ALBION SC Riverside… 8th FC Premier 6th AC Brea (2) 14th Fram Soccer Club 2 11th City SC Los Angeles… 12th Laguna United 2 2nd Sporting So-Cal Soc… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 13th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:30 PM		 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-3 · GD -10		 Home
Eastvale Community Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 5–2 2.54 2.91 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1		 Away
Charter Oak High School · grass		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 3–3 1.81 2.73 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
03:00 PM		 Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -1		 Home
Eastvale Community Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–2 2.08 2.63 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:30 AM		 Fram Soccer Club 2
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -24		 Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 5–1 2.76 2.65 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
08:00 AM		 Laguna United 2
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +32		 Home
Eastvale Community Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 2–4 0.61 2.42 Upside
Sun Nov 22
12:00 AM		 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -11		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 3–1 2.44 2.42 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
06:45 PM		 City SC Los Angeles 2
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -4		 Away
Manhattan Village Field		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–2 2.06 2.39 Swing game
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM		 Rayados Academy San Diego
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +0		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–2 1.81 2.34 Swing game
Sun Jan 24
09:00 AM		 FC Premier
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +5		 Away
Dunrobin field (Behind - St John Bosco HS - Dunrobin (behind turf) · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 3–3 1.47 2.28 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 AC Brea (2)
14th · 0-0-4 · GD -13		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.67 2.30 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Riverside 2
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +7		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 3–3 1.37 2.24 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM		 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 3–2 1.95 2.22 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
08:00 AM		 Reds FC 2
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
Eastvale Community Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 3–2 1.46 2.18 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-3 · GD -10		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 4–2 2.27 2.18 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 4–2 2.16 2.18 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 Fram Soccer Club 2
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -24		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 6–1 2.87 2.22 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Laguna United 2
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +32		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 2–4 0.38 2.13 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -11		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 4–1 2.64 2.15 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Reds FC 2
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–3 1.10 2.11 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 City SC Los Angeles 2
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 4–2 2.36 2.12 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Rayados Academy San Diego
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.11 2.12 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 3–2 1.75 2.10 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 EMPIRE SC 4400 179+8 123.00 WWWW +0.06 -0.13 93% 2.8
2 Laguna United 2 5410 364+32 132.60 DWWWW -1.47 -0.01 100% 1.0
3 Reds FC 2 4301 177+10 92.25 WWWL -0.18 -0.10 92% 2.9
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 4211 1210+2 71.75 DWWL +0.23 -0.08 22% 6.0
5 Rayados Academy San Diego 4211 77+0 71.75 LWWD -0.98 +0.16 2% 8.2
6 FC Premier 4202 1611+5 61.50 LLWW -0.30 -0.03 32% 5.5
7 Los Angeles SC 2 4202 1314-1 61.50 WLLW +0.37 -0.08 8% 7.2
8 ALBION SC Riverside 2 5212 2013+7 71.40 DLLWW -0.15 -0.08 44% 5.0
9 Rangers FC 2 5212 1213-1 71.40 DWLWL +0.42 -0.14 7% 7.3
10 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 5203 1424-10 61.20 WLWLL +0.36 +0.04 0% 10.4
11 Fram Soccer Club 2 5113 428-24 40.80 WLLDL +0.25 +0.20 0% 13.6
12 City SC Los Angeles 2 4103 1014-4 30.75 LLWL +0.13 +0.03 0% 10.0
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 112-11 00.00 LLL +1.69 -0.09 0% 12.3
14 AC Brea (2) 4004 417-13 00.00 LLLL +0.51 +0.05 0% 12.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.