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ALBION SC Riverside 2

Elite Academy League 2 · South U12 · 14 teams · ALBION SC Riverside (all teams)

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8th
2-1-2 record · 5 played
1.40 points per game
+7 goal diff · 20–13
DLLWWlast 5
43% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 12:30 PM

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ALBION SC Riverside 2
8th · 1.40 PPG
vs
Fram Soccer Club 2
11th · 0.80 PPG

Galway Downs, 6A ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 6.0 for, 1.4 against · 2.84 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Riverside 2Fram Soccer Club 2
Position8th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-21-1-3
Points per game1.400.80
Goals for / game4.00.8
Goals against / game2.65.6
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W L L DL D L L W
Biggest win7–1 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club2–1 vs AC Brea (2)
Worst loss3–6 at EMPIRE SC0–10 vs Laguna United 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.89-2.89
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15+0.25

Common opponents: Rayados Academy San Diego — we 2–3; they 2–2. Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club — we 7–1; they 0–8.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Fram Soccer Club 2 average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 3.0); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Fram Soccer Club 2 concede 5.6/game; worst result 0–10 vs Laguna United 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 93% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • What a win does
    Los Angeles SC 2 sit 7th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.

    A point moves us above Los Angeles SC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fram Soccer Club 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Riverside 2 – Fram Soccer Club 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.67 PPG
6th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 2 8th— holds
Win
1.67 PPG
6th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 2 8th— holds
Draw
1.33 PPG
9th▼ down 1 8th— holds 10th▼ down 2
Loss
1.17 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
43% top 4
57% below the top 4
5.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 26%
  5. 5th 23%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 EMPIRE SC 3.00 (+1.60) 2nd (2.10) 71 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 Laguna United 2 2.60 (+1.20) 1st (2.64) 61 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 62 for their projection
3 Reds FC 2 2.25 (+0.85) 3rd (2.07) 52 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 1.75 (+0.35) 6th (1.64) 39 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 Rayados Academy San Diego 1.75 (+0.35) 9th (1.36) 39 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 FC Premier 1.50 (+0.10) 5th (1.70) A point next game
7 Los Angeles SC 2 1.50 (+0.10) 7th (1.49) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Riverside 2 to Fram Soccer Club 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
2 favour them
+7.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 2–2 7–1 8–0 3–6 4–2 1–2 4–3 7–0 1–11 10–0 2–2 3–0 6–1 3–4 5–2 ALBION SC Riverside… 8th Rayados Academy San… 5th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 10th EMPIRE SC 1st Total Futbol Academ… 4th City SC Los Angeles… 12th AC Brea (2) 14th FC Premier 6th Laguna United 2 2nd Fram Soccer Club 2 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 8th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 8
12:30 PM
Fram Soccer Club 2
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -24
Home
Galway Downs
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.84 1.64 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:30 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Away
Fremont Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–3 1.67 1.65 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
10:00 AM
Laguna United 2
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +32
Away
La Paz Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
8%
2–5 0.31 1.48 Upside
Sun Dec 6
09:00 AM
FC Premier
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +5
Away
Dunrobin field (Behind - St John Bosco HS - Dunrobin (behind turf) · turf
●●●●○ Tough
39%
3–3 1.33 1.46 Upside
Sun Dec 13
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
3–3 1.33 1.45 Upside
Sun Jan 10
10:30 AM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -1
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
3–2 1.63 1.46 Swing game
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.37 1.54 Bank it
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
3–2 1.47 1.53 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–1 2.02 1.57 Swing game
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
3–3 1.47 1.56 Swing game
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
14th · 0-0-4 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
4–1 2.40 1.61 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
4–2 2.27 1.65 Bank it
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-3 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
4–2 2.17 1.68 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
10:30 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -24
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
5–1 2.72 1.74 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
4–2 2.05 1.75 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Laguna United 2
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +32
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
2–4 0.51 1.69 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
FC Premier
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–3 1.72 1.69 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.98 1.66 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–2 1.97 1.68 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.59 1.71 Bank it
Tue May 25
09:30 AM
AC Brea (2)
14th · 0-0-4 · GD -13
Home
SilverLakes
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.62 1.75 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 EMPIRE SC 4400 179+8 123.00 WWWW +0.06 -0.13 92% 2.8
2 Laguna United 2 5410 364+32 132.60 DWWWW -1.47 -0.01 100% 1.0
3 Reds FC 2 4301 177+10 92.25 WWWL -0.18 -0.10 90% 3.0
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 4211 1210+2 71.75 DWWL +0.23 -0.08 21% 6.0
5 Rayados Academy San Diego 4211 77+0 71.75 LWWD -0.98 +0.16 2% 8.3
6 FC Premier 4202 1611+5 61.50 LLWW -0.30 -0.03 35% 5.4
7 Los Angeles SC 2 4202 1314-1 61.50 WLLW +0.37 -0.08 8% 7.2
8 ALBION SC Riverside 2 5212 2013+7 71.40 DLLWW -0.15 -0.08 43% 5.0
9 Rangers FC 2 5212 1213-1 71.40 DWLWL +0.42 -0.14 8% 7.3
10 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 5203 1424-10 61.20 WLWLL +0.36 +0.04 0% 10.4
11 Fram Soccer Club 2 5113 428-24 40.80 WLLDL +0.25 +0.20 0% 13.6
12 City SC Los Angeles 2 4103 1014-4 30.75 LLWL +0.13 +0.03 0% 10.0
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 112-11 00.00 LLL +1.69 -0.09 0% 12.3
14 AC Brea (2) 4004 417-13 00.00 LLLL +0.51 +0.05 0% 12.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.