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Reds FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · South U12 · 14 teams · SoCal Reds FC (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+10 goal diff · 17–7
WWWLlast 4
90% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Reds FC 2
3rd · 2.25 PPG
at
Laguna United 2
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Marina Hills Soccer Fields, Marina Hills Lower ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.0 for, 4.5 against · 0.47 expected points)

Season so farReds FC 2Laguna United 2
Position3rd2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-14-1-0
Points per game2.252.60
Goals for / game4.37.2
Goals against / game1.80.8
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W W WW W W W D
Biggest win6–0 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)10–0 at Fram Soccer Club 2
Worst loss2–4 at FC Premier—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.37+3.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.18-1.47

Common opponents: FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) — we 6–0; they 4–0. Rangers FC 2 — we 4–1; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Laguna United 2 score 7.2/game — well above the league's 3.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Laguna United 2 concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Laguna United 2 have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Marina Hills Soccer Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Laguna United 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Reds FC 2 – Laguna United 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.80 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.40 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.80 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
90% top 4
10% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 41%
  3. 3rd 34%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 EMPIRE SC 3.00 (+0.75) 2nd (2.10) 69 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 Laguna United 2 2.60 (+0.35) 1st (2.64) 59 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection

How the results connect

5 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Reds FC 2 to Laguna United 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 favour them
+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–0 0–4 4–1 3–3 3–1 0–8 5–2 4–3 2–4 7–0 0–10 Reds FC 2 3rd FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 13th Rangers FC 2 9th Los Angeles SC 2 7th FC Premier 6th AC Brea (2) 14th Fram Soccer Club 2 11th Laguna United 2 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 12th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 17
01:30 PM
no score posted
Rayados Academy San Diego
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
Brywood Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 2.24 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Laguna United 2
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +32
Away
Marina Hills Soccer Fields
●●●●● Very tough
12%
2–4 0.47 1.94 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
14th · 0-0-4 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 2.05 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
10:30 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Eastwood Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
4–1 2.44 2.10 Bank it
Sun Dec 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside 2
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
3–3 1.50 2.04 Swing game
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-3 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
5–2 2.61 2.09 Bank it
Sun Jan 17
10:30 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -24
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.79 2.16 Bank it
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.68 2.20 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
4–2 2.26 2.20 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
10:30 AM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -1
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
3–2 1.86 2.18 Swing game
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–2 1.72 2.15 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.91 2.13 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM
FC Premier
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–2 1.97 2.12 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
08:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +8
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–3 1.37 2.08 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Laguna United 2
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +32
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
2–3 0.73 2.01 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
14th · 0-0-4 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
4–1 2.53 2.04 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–2 2.16 2.04 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.74 2.03 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside 2
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.87 2.02 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-3 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
4–2 2.36 2.04 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -24
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
6–1 2.89 2.07 Bank it
Tue May 25
10:30 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
Orchard Park
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.05 2.07 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 EMPIRE SC 4400 179+8 123.00 WWWW +0.06 -0.13 92% 2.8
2 Laguna United 2 5410 364+32 132.60 DWWWW -1.47 -0.01 100% 1.0
3 Reds FC 2 4301 177+10 92.25 WWWL -0.18 -0.10 90% 3.0
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 4211 1210+2 71.75 DWWL +0.23 -0.08 21% 6.0
5 Rayados Academy San Diego 4211 77+0 71.75 LWWD -0.98 +0.16 2% 8.3
6 FC Premier 4202 1611+5 61.50 LLWW -0.30 -0.03 35% 5.4
7 Los Angeles SC 2 4202 1314-1 61.50 WLLW +0.37 -0.08 8% 7.2
8 ALBION SC Riverside 2 5212 2013+7 71.40 DLLWW -0.15 -0.08 43% 5.0
9 Rangers FC 2 5212 1213-1 71.40 DWLWL +0.42 -0.14 8% 7.3
10 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 5203 1424-10 61.20 WLWLL +0.36 +0.04 0% 10.4
11 Fram Soccer Club 2 5113 428-24 40.80 WLLDL +0.25 +0.20 0% 13.6
12 City SC Los Angeles 2 4103 1014-4 30.75 LLWL +0.13 +0.03 0% 10.0
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 112-11 00.00 LLL +1.69 -0.09 0% 12.3
14 AC Brea (2) 4004 417-13 00.00 LLLL +0.51 +0.05 0% 12.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.