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Crusaders SC

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U19 · 13 teams · Crusaders SC (all teams)

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9th
2-0-6 record · 8 played
0.75 points per game
-10 goal diff · 10–20
WLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.1
+0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Crusaders SC
9th · 0.75 PPG
at
Chula Vista FC 2
7th · 1.50 PPG

O'Farrell Charter High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.4 against · 0.50 expected points)

Season so farCrusaders SCChula Vista FC 2
Position9th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-63-0-3
Points per game0.751.50
Goals for / game1.33.0
Goals against / game2.52.3
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)L L L L WL W W L W
Biggest win3–0 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)4–1 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Worst loss0–5 at BOCA OC (2)1–3 at ALBION SC San Diego (1)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.09+0.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.01-0.14

Common opponents: ALBION SC San Diego (1) — we 3–4; they 1–3. FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) — we 3–0; they 4–1. ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 1–6; they 5–3. Elite FC 2 — we 0–1; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–5 at BOCA OC (2), 0–3 at Rangers FC 2, 0–1 at Reds FC 2, 0–1 vs Elite FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at O'Farrell Charter High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Chula Vista FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Crusaders SC – Chula Vista FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Draw
0.78 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Loss
0.67 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 20%
  11. 11th 40%
  12. 12th 25%
  13. 13th 8%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.28 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 BOCA OC (2) 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.45) 69 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 EMPIRE SC 2.25 (+1.50) 3rd (1.84) 51 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2.17 (+1.42) 4th (1.83) 49 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 2.00 (+1.25) 2nd (1.91) 44 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
5 Rayados Academy San Diego 1.83 (+1.08) 6th (1.70) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
6 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+0.92) 5th (1.72) 36 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
7 Chula Vista FC 2 1.50 (+0.75) 7th (1.60) 32 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
8 Reds FC 2 1.40 (+0.65) 8th (1.34) 29 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection

How the results connect

18 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Crusaders SC to Chula Vista FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
4 even
11 favour them
-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 1–4 3–4 3–1 0–1 0–3 1–6 3–5 0–1 0–1 0–3 3–2 1–1 4–3 0–1 3–0 8–1 2–1 3–2 1–3 Crusaders SC 9th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 13th ALBION SC San Diego… 3rd Elite FC 2 11th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 4th Reds FC 2 8th Rangers FC 2 6th Rayados Academy San… 5th EMPIRE SC 2nd Chula Vista FC 2 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 2nd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +4
Away
O'Farrell Charter High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.50 0.72 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2
Home
Pershing Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.03 0.75 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Pershing Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.65 0.74 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +4
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.53 0.73 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.30 0.69 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -9
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.49 0.75 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.73 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.78 0.73 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.69 0.73 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.99 0.74 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -15
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.49 0.78 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.73 0.78 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.76 0.78 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.44 0.76 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +3
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–2 0.59 0.75 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Zeta Academy
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Home
Town Center Community Park East
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.31 0.78 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Zeta Academy
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.05 0.79 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 BOCA OC (2) 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW +0.10 -0.22 100% 1.1
2 EMPIRE SC 4301 138+5 92.25 WWWL -0.17 -0.07 62% 4.0
3 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 6411 139+4 132.17 WDLWW +0.14 -0.14 61% 4.2
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6402 2114+7 122.00 WLWLW -0.08 -0.12 74% 3.5
5 Rayados Academy San Diego 6321 118+3 111.83 DWWDW +0.03 -0.11 35% 5.3
6 Rangers FC 2 6312 1712+5 101.67 LWLWD -0.04 -0.10 41% 5.0
7 Chula Vista FC 2 6303 1814+4 91.50 WLWWL -0.14 -0.05 23% 6.0
8 Reds FC 2 5212 1010+0 71.40 WLLWD -0.21 +0.02 3% 8.0
9 Crusaders SC 8206 1020-10 60.75 WLLLL +0.01 +0.06 0% 11.1
10 AC Brea (2) 2011 57-2 10.50 DL +0.58 -0.06 2% 8.5
11 Elite FC 2 6105 419-15 30.50 LLLLW +0.24 +0.03 0% 11.9
12 Zeta Academy 1001 03-3 00.00 +0.00 +0.03 0% 10.0
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 110-9 00.00 LLL -0.28 +0.15 0% 12.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.