AC Brea (2)
Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U19 · 13 teams · AC Brea (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM
Pershing Middle School, Pershing MS Field 2 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.78 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Brea (2) | Crusaders SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-1 | 2-0-6 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L D | L L L L W |
| Biggest win | — | 3–0 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) |
| Worst loss | 3–5 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 | 0–5 at BOCA OC (2) |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.32 | -1.09 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.58 | +0.01 |
Common opponents: ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 3–5; they 1–6.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 19% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Crusaders SC have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Pershing Middle School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Crusaders SC sit 9th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.50.A point moves us above Crusaders SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Crusaders SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea (2) – Crusaders SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.33 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.33 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 10%
- 8th 24%
- 9th 35%
- 10th 16%
- 11th 5%
- 12th 1%
- 13th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOCA OC (2) | 3.00 (+2.50) | 1st (2.45) | 71 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection |
| 2 | EMPIRE SC | 2.25 (+1.75) | 3rd (1.84) | 53 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 3 | ALBION SC San Diego (1) | 2.17 (+1.67) | 4th (1.83) | 52 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 4 | ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 | 2.00 (+1.50) | 2nd (1.91) | 47 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
| 5 | Rayados Academy San Diego | 1.83 (+1.33) | 6th (1.70) | 43 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection |
| 6 | Rangers FC 2 | 1.67 (+1.17) | 5th (1.72) | 40 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 7 | Chula Vista FC 2 | 1.50 (+1.00) | 7th (1.60) | 35 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 8 | Reds FC 2 | 1.40 (+0.90) | 8th (1.34) | 33 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 9 | Crusaders SC | 0.75 (+0.25) | 11th (0.79) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link AC Brea (2) to Crusaders SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.06 · 7th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Crusaders SC 9th · 2-0-6 · GD -10 |
Away Pershing Middle School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.78 | 0.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:15 AM |
Reds FC 2 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Whittier College · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 1.07 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Chula Vista FC 2 7th · 3-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home Whittier College · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–3 | 1.19 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 06:00 PM |
Elite FC 2 11th · 1-0-5 · GD -15 |
Away Rosetta Canyon Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 1.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
EMPIRE SC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Away Eastvale Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
2–3 | 0.76 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
EMPIRE SC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home Whittier College · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
2–3 | 1.06 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 13th · 0-0-3 · GD -9 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.30 | 1.29 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Elite FC 2 11th · 1-0-5 · GD -15 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.29 | 1.39 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
BOCA OC (2) 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.12 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Rayados Academy San Diego 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.89 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
2–4 | 0.68 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 AM |
Rangers FC 2 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
2–3 | 0.81 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Crusaders SC 9th · 2-0-6 · GD -10 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 1.25 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
Reds FC 2 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.16 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Chula Vista FC 2 7th · 3-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
2–3 | 0.86 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun May 23 08:30 AM |
Rangers FC 2 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Home Grass - Whittier College · grass |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–3 | 1.12 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
BOCA OC (2) 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.32 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +4 |
Away Hickman Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 PM |
Zeta Academy 12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.55 | 1.17 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 PM |
Zeta Academy 12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3 |
Home Whittier College · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.20 | Swing game |
| Sat May 29 06:15 PM |
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 13th · 0-0-3 · GD -9 |
Away RJRSP |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 1.24 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | BOCA OC (2) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.10 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at EMPIRE SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC 2 · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC San Diego (1) See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | EMPIRE SC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.17 | -0.07 | 62% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs BOCA OC (2) · Sun Nov 1 at Rangers FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at Crusaders SC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC San Diego (1) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 13 | 2.17 | WDLWW | +0.14 | -0.14 | 61% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sun Nov 1 at Elite FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWLW | -0.08 | -0.12 | 74% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1) · Sat Nov 21 at Rangers FC 2 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Rayados Academy San Diego | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDW | +0.03 | -0.11 | 35% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Reds FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sun Nov 8 vs EMPIRE SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rangers FC 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 10 | 1.67 | LWLWD | -0.04 | -0.10 | 41% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs EMPIRE SC · Sun Nov 8 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Chula Vista FC 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWWL | -0.14 | -0.05 | 23% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Crusaders SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Reds FC 2 · Sun Nov 8 at AC Brea (2) See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Reds FC 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | WLLWD | -0.21 | +0.02 | 3% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Rayados Academy San Diego · Sun Nov 1 at Chula Vista FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at AC Brea (2) See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Crusaders SC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 6 | 0.75 | WLLLL | +0.01 | +0.06 | 0% | 11.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Chula Vista FC 2 · Sat Oct 31 vs AC Brea (2) · Sat Nov 7 vs EMPIRE SC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | AC Brea (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | DL | +0.58 | -0.06 | 2% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Crusaders SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Reds FC 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Chula Vista FC 2 See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Elite FC 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 19 | -15 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLW | +0.24 | +0.03 | 0% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1) · Sat Nov 7 at BOCA OC (2) · Sun Nov 8 at Reds FC 2 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Zeta Academy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Tue May 25 at Chula Vista FC 2 · Tue May 25 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 · Tue May 25 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) See all 24 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | -0.28 | +0.15 | 0% | 12.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC San Diego (1) · Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Rayados Academy San Diego See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.