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ALBION SC Santa Ana 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U19 · 13 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

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4th
4-0-2 record · 6 played
2.00 points per game
+7 goal diff · 21–14
WLWLWlast 5
75% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 05:15 PM

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ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 2.00 PPG
vs

Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.3 against · 2.67 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa Ana 2FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Position4th13th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-20-0-3
Points per game2.000.00
Goals for / game3.50.3
Goals against / game2.33.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W L W L WL L L
Biggest win6–1 at Crusaders SC—
Worst loss1–4 vs BOCA OC (2)0–3 vs Reds FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.81-1.55
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.08-0.28

Common opponents: Crusaders SC — we 6–1; they 0–3. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 3–5; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) concede 3.3/game; worst result 0–3 vs Reds FC 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 – FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.14 PPG
4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Win
2.14 PPG
4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Draw
1.86 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.71 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
75% top 4
25% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 34%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 BOCA OC (2) 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.45) 60 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
2 EMPIRE SC 2.25 (+0.25) 3rd (1.84) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2.17 (+0.17) 4th (1.83) 41 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection

How the results connect

7 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 to FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
0 favour them
+5.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–5 4–1 6–1 3–0 4–1 0–3 1–4 5–0 2–0 4–3 0–1 3–0 1–0 ALBION SC Santa Ana… 4th Chula Vista FC 2 7th Crusaders SC 9th Elite FC 2 11th BOCA OC (2) 1st Rayados Academy San… 5th Reds FC 2 8th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
05:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -9
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.67 2.10 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
05:15 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +4
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.66 2.04 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–3 1.35 1.97 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.68 1.94 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -15
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.66 2.00 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
05:15 PM
EMPIRE SC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
3–2 1.66 1.97 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
08:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.61 1.87 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
9th · 2-0-6 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 1.92 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.04 1.92 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.81 1.92 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–3 1.29 1.88 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
4–2 2.19 1.90 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -9
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.49 1.93 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.33 1.90 Upside
Sat May 8
12:00 PM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–2 1.72 1.89 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.36 1.91 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +0
Away
Portola Springs Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.72 1.90 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Zeta Academy
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.09 1.91 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 BOCA OC (2) 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW +0.10 -0.22 100% 1.1
2 EMPIRE SC 4301 138+5 92.25 WWWL -0.17 -0.07 63% 4.0
3 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 6411 139+4 132.17 WDLWW +0.14 -0.14 57% 4.3
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6402 2114+7 122.00 WLWLW -0.08 -0.12 75% 3.5
5 Rayados Academy San Diego 6321 118+3 111.83 DWWDW +0.03 -0.11 38% 5.2
6 Rangers FC 2 6312 1712+5 101.67 LWLWD -0.04 -0.10 42% 5.0
7 Chula Vista FC 2 6303 1814+4 91.50 WLWWL -0.14 -0.05 21% 6.0
8 Reds FC 2 5212 1010+0 71.40 WLLWD -0.21 +0.02 3% 7.9
9 Crusaders SC 8206 1020-10 60.75 WLLLL +0.01 +0.06 0% 11.1
10 AC Brea (2) 2011 57-2 10.50 DL +0.58 -0.06 2% 8.6
11 Elite FC 2 6105 419-15 30.50 LLLLW +0.24 +0.03 0% 11.9
12 Zeta Academy 1001 03-3 00.00 +0.00 +0.03 0% 10.0
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 110-9 00.00 LLL -0.28 +0.15 0% 12.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.