TableChase Clubs

Culver City

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U19 · 12 teams · Culver City Football Club (all teams)

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4th
2-1-1 record · 4 played
1.75 points per game
+6 goal diff · 11–5
LWDWlast 4
77% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
+0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Culver City
4th · 1.75 PPG
vs
FC Premier
12th · 0.00 PPG

Culver City High School, Helms Field ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.1 for, 0.9 against · 2.76 expected points)

Season so farCulver CityFC Premier
Position4th12th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-10-0-3
Points per game1.750.00
Goals for / game2.80.0
Goals against / game1.34.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W D W LL L L
Biggest win7–2 vs FC Golden State Force (2)—
Worst loss1–2 at LAIFC (2)0–8 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.91-2.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.05+0.68

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Premier average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 3 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Premier concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–8 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Premier have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Culver City – FC Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.60 PPG
5th▼ down 1 4th— holds 7th▼ down 3
Loss
1.40 PPG
6th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

10% finish 1st
77% top 4
23% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st 10%
  2. 2nd 17%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 24%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.17 (+0.42) 2nd (2.11) 41 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
2 LAIFC (2) 2.14 (+0.39) 1st (2.17) 41 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 Downey United Football Club 2.14 (+0.39) 3rd (1.93) 41 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Culver City to FC Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
0 favour them
+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 2–3 3–0 1–1 1–5 8–0 4–0 3–0 4–5 Culver City 4th LAIFC (2) 2nd City SC Los Angeles… 9th Bell Gardens Footba… 7th Total Futbol Academ… 1st Downey United Footb… 3rd FC Premier 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
Culver City High School
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.76 1.95 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
04:00 PM
Autobahn SA
6th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Away
Santa Monica Airport Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
3–2 1.67 1.91 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:50 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 4-1-1 · GD +14
Away
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.13 1.79 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:35 PM
Pride FC
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away
Borchard Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.27 1.85 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Home
Culver City High School
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.36 1.91 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Autobahn SA
6th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Home
Culver City High School
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.01 1.92 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away
Rancho Vista Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.93 1.92 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +12
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–2 1.36 1.87 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.89 1.88 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.34 1.91 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
05:25 PM
Downey United Football Club
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +9
Away
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.31 1.87 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
3–1 2.21 1.89 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–2 1.74 1.88 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
05:55 PM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.62 1.92 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 4-1-1 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.46 1.90 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Pride FC
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 1.93 Bank it
Tue May 25
09:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
West Covina High School
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.09 1.93 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +9
Home
Culver City High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.60 1.92 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6411 2612+14 132.17 WDWWW -0.31 -0.15 96% 2.2
2 LAIFC (2) 7502 219+12 152.14 WLWLW +0.25 -0.36 97% 1.9
3 Downey United Football Club 7502 1910+9 152.14 WWLLW -0.19 -0.09 78% 3.5
4 Culver City 4211 115+6 71.75 LWDW +0.05 -0.18 77% 3.5
5 FC Golden State Force (2) 6312 1918+1 101.67 LWDWL +0.08 -0.11 18% 5.7
6 Autobahn SA 5221 1817+1 81.60 DDLWW +0.26 -0.18 32% 5.0
7 Bell Gardens Football Club 5212 1113-2 71.40 WLWDL -0.38 +0.09 1% 7.7
8 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6213 812-4 71.17 LLDWL +0.18 -0.10 2% 7.7
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 5113 512-7 40.80 LWDLL +0.44 -0.10 0% 9.4
10 Pride FC 5104 313-10 30.60 LLLLW +0.24 -0.01 0% 10.4
11 Los Angeles SC 2 5023 1218-6 20.40 LDLDL +0.11 -0.01 0% 9.3
12 FC Premier 3003 014-14 00.00 LLL +0.68 +0.07 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.