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Autobahn SA

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U19 · 12 teams · Autobahn SA (all teams)

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6th
2-2-1 record · 5 played
1.60 points per game
+1 goal diff · 18–17
DDLWWlast 5
32% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1
+0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 07:00 PM

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Autobahn SA
6th · 1.60 PPG
vs
LAIFC (2)
2nd · 2.14 PPG

Lincoln Middle Schol, Lincoln Middle School ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.3 for, 3.3 against · 0.96 expected points)

Season so farAutobahn SALAIFC (2)
Position6th2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-2-15-0-2
Points per game1.602.14
Goals for / game3.63.0
Goals against / game3.41.3
Clean sheets14
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W L D DW L W L W
Biggest win2–0 at Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club4–0 at Downey United Football Club
Worst loss4–6 at FC Golden State Force (2)2–3 vs Bell Gardens Football Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.30+1.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.26+0.25

Common opponents: Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 — we 4–4; they 4–5. FC Golden State Force (2) — we 4–6; they 3–0. Downey United Football Club — we 4–3; they 4–0. Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    FC Golden State Force (2) sit 5th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.60.

    A point moves us above FC Golden State Force (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAIFC (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Autobahn SA – LAIFC (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.33 PPG
7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2
Win
1.83 PPG
4th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Draw
1.50 PPG
6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.33 PPG
7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
32% top 4
68% below the top 4
5.1 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 29%
  6. 6th 24%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.17 (+0.57) 2nd (2.11) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
2 LAIFC (2) 2.14 (+0.54) 1st (2.17) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
3 Downey United Football Club 2.14 (+0.54) 3rd (1.93) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Culver City 1.75 (+0.15) 4th (1.92) A point next game
5 FC Golden State Force (2) 1.67 (+0.07) 6th (1.58) A point next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Autobahn SA to LAIFC (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 even
11 favour them
-1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 4–4 5–4 4–3 0–4 4–6 0–3 5–1 0–4 0–2 1–2 3–3 2–1 4–4 4–4 3–2 2–3 3–0 Autobahn SA 6th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 8th Total Futbol Academ… 1st Downey United Footb… 3rd FC Golden State For… 5th Los Angeles SC 2 11th City SC Los Angeles… 9th Culver City 4th Bell Gardens Footba… 7th LAIFC (2) 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 11th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
07:00 PM
LAIFC (2)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Lincoln Middle Schol
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.96 1.49 Upside
Sun Oct 25
03:30 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Home
Lincoln Middle Schol
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.17 1.59 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
04:00 PM
Culver City
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Santa Monica Airport Field
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–3 1.16 1.54 Upside
Sun Nov 1
05:25 PM
Pride FC
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away
Borchard Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–1 2.09 1.60 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:45 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Home
John Adams Middle School (
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.95 1.63 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM
Downey United Football Club
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +9
Home
Santa Monica High School
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.23 1.60 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Culver City
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Culver City High School
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.84 1.53 Upside
Sat Mar 6
05:30 PM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
Lincoln Middle Schol
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 1.62 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
4–2 2.12 1.66 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 4-1-1 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–4 0.67 1.59 Upside
Sun Mar 14
05:55 PM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
4–1 2.53 1.65 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
4–3 1.71 1.66 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.92 1.67 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–3 0.67 1.62 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–2 1.87 1.63 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Pride FC
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 1.67 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–2 1.59 1.66 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6411 2612+14 132.17 WDWWW -0.31 -0.15 94% 2.3
2 LAIFC (2) 7502 219+12 152.14 WLWLW +0.25 -0.36 97% 2.0
3 Downey United Football Club 7502 1910+9 152.14 WWLLW -0.19 -0.09 79% 3.4
4 Culver City 4211 115+6 71.75 LWDW +0.05 -0.18 77% 3.4
5 FC Golden State Force (2) 6312 1918+1 101.67 LWDWL +0.08 -0.11 18% 5.6
6 Autobahn SA 5221 1817+1 81.60 DDLWW +0.26 -0.18 32% 5.1
7 Bell Gardens Football Club 5212 1113-2 71.40 WLWDL -0.38 +0.09 2% 7.7
8 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6213 812-4 71.17 LLDWL +0.18 -0.10 1% 7.8
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 5113 512-7 40.80 LWDLL +0.44 -0.10 0% 9.3
10 Pride FC 5104 313-10 30.60 LLLLW +0.24 -0.01 0% 10.4
11 Los Angeles SC 2 5023 1218-6 20.40 LDLDL +0.11 -0.01 0% 9.3
12 FC Premier 3003 014-14 00.00 LLL +0.68 +0.07 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.