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Bell Gardens Football Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U19 · 12 teams · Bell Gardens Football Club (all teams)

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7th
2-1-2 record · 5 played
1.40 points per game
-2 goal diff · 11–13
WLWDLlast 5
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.6
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 08:00 AM

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Bell Gardens Football Club
7th · 1.40 PPG
vs

JW NORTH Stadium, JW NORTH Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.9 for, 3.1 against · 1.32 expected points)

Season so farBell Gardens Football ClubFC Golden State Force (2)
Position7th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-23-1-2
Points per game1.401.67
Goals for / game2.23.2
Goals against / game2.63.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L D W L WL W D W L
Biggest win3–0 at FC Premier4–0 at Pride FC
Worst loss1–4 at Downey United Football Club2–7 at Culver City
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.36+0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38+0.08

Common opponents: LAIFC (2) — we 3–2; they 0–3. Los Angeles SC 2 — we 4–4; they 4–1. Pride FC — we 0–3; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Pride FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 39%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Autobahn SA sit 6th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.40.

    A point moves us above Autobahn SA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bell Gardens Football Club – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.17 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Win
1.67 PPG
5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 1
Draw
1.33 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Loss
1.17 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–3 loss we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
7.6 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 27%
  8. 8th 26%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.17 (+0.77) 2nd (2.11) 41 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
2 LAIFC (2) 2.14 (+0.74) 1st (2.17) 41 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 Downey United Football Club 2.14 (+0.74) 3rd (1.93) 41 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 Culver City 1.75 (+0.35) 4th (1.92) 32 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 FC Golden State Force (2) 1.67 (+0.27) 6th (1.58) 30 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 Autobahn SA 1.60 (+0.20) 5th (1.66) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Bell Gardens Football Club to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
8 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–4 1–4 3–2 3–0 0–3 0–4 2–3 3–3 4–4 4–6 2–0 1–4 3–0 0–4 3–1 3–4 2–1 7–2 Bell Gardens Footba… 7th Los Angeles SC 2 11th LAIFC (2) 2nd Pride FC 10th Downey United Footb… 3rd Sporting So-Cal Soc… 8th Autobahn SA 6th Culver City 4th FC Golden State For… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 1st hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
08:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Home
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–3 1.32 1.39 Upside
Sat Nov 7
06:15 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.53 1.41 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:45 AM
Autobahn SA
6th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Away
John Adams Middle School (
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–3 0.90 1.34 Upside
Sat Nov 14
06:30 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 4-1-1 · GD +14
Away
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–4 0.48 1.25 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 AM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 1.37 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Culver City
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Rancho Vista Park
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.89 1.32 Upside
Sun Nov 22
08:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 4-1-1 · GD +14
Home
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
20%
2–3 0.73 1.28 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.96 1.25 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +12
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.73 1.21 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.38 1.22 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.58 1.25 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Culver City
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.64 1.21 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
Pride FC
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.75 1.24 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.82 1.27 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.98 1.26 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
6th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–3 1.25 1.26 Upside
Sun May 23
03:20 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -4
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.29 1.26 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6411 2612+14 132.17 WDWWW -0.31 -0.15 94% 2.3
2 LAIFC (2) 7502 219+12 152.14 WLWLW +0.25 -0.36 97% 1.9
3 Downey United Football Club 7502 1910+9 152.14 WWLLW -0.19 -0.09 79% 3.4
4 Culver City 4211 115+6 71.75 LWDW +0.05 -0.18 78% 3.5
5 FC Golden State Force (2) 6312 1918+1 101.67 LWDWL +0.08 -0.11 18% 5.7
6 Autobahn SA 5221 1817+1 81.60 DDLWW +0.26 -0.18 30% 5.1
7 Bell Gardens Football Club 5212 1113-2 71.40 WLWDL -0.38 +0.09 2% 7.6
8 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6213 812-4 71.17 LLDWL +0.18 -0.10 1% 7.7
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 5113 512-7 40.80 LWDLL +0.44 -0.10 0% 9.3
10 Pride FC 5104 313-10 30.60 LLLLW +0.24 -0.01 0% 10.4
11 Los Angeles SC 2 5023 1218-6 20.40 LDLDL +0.11 -0.01 0% 9.3
12 FC Premier 3003 014-14 00.00 LLL +0.68 +0.07 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.