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Total Futbol Academy - OC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U14 · 12 teams · Total Futbol Academy - OC (all teams)

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4th
4-1-1 record · 6 played
2.17 points per game
+8 goal diff · 14–6
LWWWDlast 5
73% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
+0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 2.17 PPG
at

Bishop Mora Salesian High School, Keegan Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 4.0 for, 0.7 against · 2.79 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol Academy - OC 2FC Golden State Force (2)
Position4th10th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-11-0-5
Points per game2.170.50
Goals for / game2.30.5
Goals against / game1.04.2
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)D W W W LL L L W L
Biggest win4–1 vs Downey United Football Club2–1 at Los Angeles SC 2
Worst loss1–2 vs City SC Los Angeles 20–11 vs Autobahn SA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.91-2.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.25-0.12

Common opponents: Autobahn SA — we 3–1; they 0–11. Pride FC — we 1–0; they 1–2. LAIFC (2) — we 3–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Golden State Force (2) average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Golden State Force (2) concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–11 vs Autobahn SA.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Golden State Force (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Bishop Mora Salesian High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Autobahn SA sit 3rd on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.17.

    A point moves us above Autobahn SA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.29 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 1
Win
2.29 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.86 PPG
6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st
73% top 4
27% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st 11%
  2. 2nd 19%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 22%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 2.67 (+0.50) 3rd (2.02) 46 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.20 (+0.03) 2nd (2.06) A point next game
3 Autobahn SA 2.17 (+0.00) 1st (2.20) A point next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+5.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 2–1 3–0 3–0 3–1 11–0 1–2 3–1 1–2 1–4 2–0 3–1 1–1 3–1 5–1 2–1 4–1 2–1 2–1 6–0 Total Futbol Academ… 4th Pride FC 8th LAIFC (2) 9th Autobahn SA 3rd City SC Los Angeles… 1st Downey United Footb… 5th Los Angeles SC 2 12th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 6th Culver City 7th FC Golden State For… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.24 · 12th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Away
Bishop Mora Salesian High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.79 2.26 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
07:10 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.55 2.17 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:45 PM
Culver City
7th · 2-0-4 · GD +0
Home
Glendale Sports Complex · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
1–0 1.98 2.15 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:15 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +10
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.28 2.06 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:25 AM
Downey United Football Club
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +8
Away
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.33 1.99 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:55 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +10
Away
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 1.91 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.33 1.87 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.20 1.82 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Pride FC
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.97 1.83 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.79 1.89 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–0 2.27 1.91 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:35 AM
FC Premier
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.05 1.92 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.88 1.97 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.80 1.96 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Culver City
7th · 2-0-4 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.74 1.95 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Away
West Covina High School
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 1.99 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 6510 146+8 162.67 WWWWD -0.30 -0.01 75% 3.3
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 5320 122+10 112.20 WDWWD -0.36 -0.04 84% 2.9
3 Autobahn SA 6411 236+17 132.17 WLWDW -0.34 -0.09 95% 1.9
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6411 146+8 132.17 LWWWD +0.25 -0.24 73% 3.5
5 Downey United Football Club 7421 168+8 142.00 WWWDW +0.02 -0.14 54% 4.2
6 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6402 127+5 122.00 WWWLL -0.36 +0.10 18% 5.6
7 Culver City 6204 88+0 61.00 WLLLW +0.07 -0.07 1% 7.4
8 Pride FC 5113 69-3 40.80 WLLLD +0.31 -0.05 0% 8.3
9 LAIFC (2) 6114 513-8 40.67 LLLLD +0.14 +0.06 0% 9.7
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 6105 325-22 30.50 LWLLL -0.12 +0.35 0% 11.6
11 FC Premier 3012 48-4 10.33 LLD +0.94 -0.12 0% 8.3
12 Los Angeles SC 2 6006 423-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.40 +0.08 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.