TableChase Clubs

FC Premier

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U14 · 12 teams · FC Premier (all teams)

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11th
0-1-2 record · 3 played
0.33 points per game
-4 goal diff · 4–8
LLDlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3
+0.94 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:35 AM

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FC Premier
11th · 0.33 PPG
vs

Ocean View High School, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.0 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so farFC PremierSporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Position11th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-24-0-2
Points per game0.332.00
Goals for / game1.32.0
Goals against / game2.71.2
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D L LL L W W W
Biggest win—4–1 at LAIFC (2)
Worst loss0–3 vs Bell Gardens Football Club1–3 at City SC Los Angeles 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.37+0.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.94-0.36

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Bell Gardens Football Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    FC Golden State Force (2) sit 10th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.33.

    A point moves us above FC Golden State Force (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Premier – Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.25 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG
8th▲ up 3 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG
10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1 11th— holds
Loss
0.25 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 18%
  8. 8th 32%
  9. 9th 32%
  10. 10th 12%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 2.67 (+2.34) 3rd (2.02) 58 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.20 (+1.87) 2nd (2.06) 48 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 Autobahn SA 2.17 (+1.84) 1st (2.20) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.17 (+1.84) 4th (1.99) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
5 Downey United Football Club 2.00 (+1.67) 5th (1.88) 43 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
6 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.67) 6th (1.67) 43 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 Culver City 1.00 (+0.67) 7th (1.32) Win next game
8 Pride FC 0.80 (+0.47) 8th (1.15) A point next game
9 LAIFC (2) 0.67 (+0.34) 10th (0.83) A point next game
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 0.50 (+0.17) 12th (0.34) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Premier to Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
4 even
1 favour them
+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 3–0 1–4 2–3 4–0 1–1 2–1 0–3 5–0 1–3 1–2 3–1 5–0 2–0 0–1 3–1 FC Premier 11th Total Futbol Academ… 4th Downey United Footb… 5th Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd LAIFC (2) 9th Autobahn SA 3rd Los Angeles SC 2 12th City SC Los Angeles… 1st Culver City 7th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 11
12:05 PM
no score posted
Pride FC
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Away
Borchard Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.24 0.56 Upside
Sat Oct 24
10:35 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Home
Ocean View High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.05 0.66 Upside
Sun Oct 25
04:50 PM
Culver City
7th · 2-0-4 · GD +0
Away
Culver City High School
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.03 0.72 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:35 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.41 0.96 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
10:35 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.60 1.17 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
11:35 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +8
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.83 1.13 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +10
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.45 1.06 Upside
Sun Feb 28
10:45 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +8
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.61 1.02 Upside
Sat Mar 6
10:00 AM
Autobahn SA
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Away
Lincoln Middle Schol
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.30 0.96 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:35 AM
Downey United Football Club
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +8
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.83 0.95 Upside
Sun Mar 14
10:35 AM
Autobahn SA
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.47 0.92 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.62 0.96 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
10:35 AM
Pride FC
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.51 1.00 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:35 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.77 0.98 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.81 0.97 Upside
Sun Apr 25
10:35 AM
Culver City
7th · 2-0-4 · GD +0
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.28 0.99 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.18 1.05 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 1.11 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.89 1.15 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 6510 146+8 162.67 WWWWD -0.30 -0.01 77% 3.3
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 5320 122+10 112.20 WDWWD -0.36 -0.04 83% 2.9
3 Autobahn SA 6411 236+17 132.17 WLWDW -0.34 -0.09 95% 2.0
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6411 146+8 132.17 LWWWD +0.25 -0.24 72% 3.5
5 Downey United Football Club 7421 168+8 142.00 WWWDW +0.02 -0.14 54% 4.2
6 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6402 127+5 122.00 WWWLL -0.36 +0.10 18% 5.6
7 Culver City 6204 88+0 61.00 WLLLW +0.07 -0.07 1% 7.4
8 Pride FC 5113 69-3 40.80 WLLLD +0.31 -0.05 0% 8.3
9 LAIFC (2) 6114 513-8 40.67 LLLLD +0.14 +0.06 0% 9.7
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 6105 325-22 30.50 LWLLL -0.12 +0.35 0% 11.6
11 FC Premier 3012 48-4 10.33 LLD +0.94 -0.12 0% 8.3
12 Los Angeles SC 2 6006 423-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.40 +0.08 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.