TableChase Clubs

Culver City

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U14 · 12 teams · Culver City Football Club (all teams)

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7th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 8–8
WLLLWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.4
+0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:50 PM

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Culver City
7th · 1.00 PPG
vs
FC Premier
11th · 0.33 PPG

Culver City High School, Helms Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.3 against · 1.75 expected points)

Season so farCulver CityFC Premier
Position7th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-40-1-2
Points per game1.000.33
Goals for / game1.31.3
Goals against / game1.32.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)W L L L WD L L
Biggest win6–0 vs FC Golden State Force (2)—
Worst loss0–3 at Autobahn SA0–3 vs Bell Gardens Football Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.05-0.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.07+0.94

Common opponents: Bell Gardens Football Club — we 0–2; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Premier concede 2.7/game; worst result 0–3 vs Bell Gardens Football Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Autobahn SA, 0–1 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club, 0–2 at Bell Gardens Football Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 22% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Culver City – FC Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3
Win
1.29 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3
Loss
0.86 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 43%
  8. 8th 26%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.45 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 2.67 (+1.67) 3rd (2.02) 53 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.20 (+1.20) 2nd (2.06) 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
3 Autobahn SA 2.17 (+1.17) 1st (2.20) 42 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.17 (+1.17) 4th (1.99) 42 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
5 Downey United Football Club 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.88) 38 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
6 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.67) 38 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection

How the results connect

7 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Culver City to FC Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
5 favour them
-1.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 3–0 1–2 2–1 2–2 0–0 3–2 1–0 0–4 0–3 0–3 1–1 1–3 Culver City 7th Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd City SC Los Angeles… 1st LAIFC (2) 9th Autobahn SA 3rd Total Futbol Academ… 4th Downey United Footb… 5th FC Premier 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:50 PM
FC Premier
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Home
Culver City High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.75 1.11 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:45 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Away
Glendale Sports Complex · turf
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.80 1.07 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:45 PM
Pride FC
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Away
Borchard Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.45 1.11 Upside
Sat Nov 14
04:50 PM
Los Angeles SC 2
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Home
Culver City High School
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 1.25 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
04:50 PM
Autobahn SA
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
Culver City High School
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.72 1.20 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.01 1.27 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.06 1.25 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.08 1.24 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:25 AM
Downey United Football Club
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +8
Away
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.86 1.21 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.85 1.19 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 1.27 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
10:35 AM
FC Premier
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.49 1.28 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.02 1.27 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Pride FC
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.69 1.29 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +8
Home
Culver City High School
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.08 1.28 Upside
Thu May 27
04:50 PM
Los Angeles SC 2
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Away
West Covina High School
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–0 2.28 1.32 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 6510 146+8 162.67 WWWWD -0.30 -0.01 77% 3.2
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 5320 122+10 112.20 WDWWD -0.36 -0.04 84% 2.9
3 Autobahn SA 6411 236+17 132.17 WLWDW -0.34 -0.09 96% 2.0
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6411 146+8 132.17 LWWWD +0.25 -0.24 72% 3.4
5 Downey United Football Club 7421 168+8 142.00 WWWDW +0.02 -0.14 54% 4.2
6 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6402 127+5 122.00 WWWLL -0.36 +0.10 16% 5.7
7 Culver City 6204 88+0 61.00 WLLLW +0.07 -0.07 1% 7.4
8 Pride FC 5113 69-3 40.80 WLLLD +0.31 -0.05 0% 8.3
9 LAIFC (2) 6114 513-8 40.67 LLLLD +0.14 +0.06 0% 9.7
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 6105 325-22 30.50 LWLLL -0.12 +0.35 0% 11.5
11 FC Premier 3012 48-4 10.33 LLD +0.94 -0.12 0% 8.3
12 Los Angeles SC 2 6006 423-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.40 +0.08 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.