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Downey United Football Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U14 · 12 teams · Downey United Football Club (all teams)

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5th
4-2-1 record · 7 played
2.00 points per game
+8 goal diff · 16–8
WWWDWlast 5
55% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1
+0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:25 AM

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Downey United Football Club
5th · 2.00 PPG
vs

St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA), Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.4 for, 0.7 against · 2.86 expected points)

Season so farDowney United Football ClubFC Golden State Force (2)
Position5th10th
Record (W-D-L)4-2-11-0-5
Points per game2.000.50
Goals for / game2.30.5
Goals against / game1.14.2
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)W D W W WL L L W L
Biggest win5–0 vs Los Angeles SC 22–1 at Los Angeles SC 2
Worst loss1–4 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 20–11 vs Autobahn SA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.80-2.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.02-0.12

Common opponents: Pride FC — we 2–1; they 1–2. LAIFC (2) — we 4–0; they 0–3. Autobahn SA — we 1–1; they 0–11. Los Angeles SC 2 — we 5–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Golden State Force (2) average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Golden State Force (2) concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–11 vs Autobahn SA.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Bell Gardens Football Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Golden State Force (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Downey United Football Club – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.13 PPG
5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 6th▼ down 1
Win
2.13 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.88 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.75 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
55% top 4
45% below the top 4
4.1 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 22%
  5. 5th 27%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 2.67 (+0.67) 3rd (2.02) 45 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.20 (+0.20) 2nd (2.06) 35 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 Autobahn SA 2.17 (+0.17) 1st (2.20) 34 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.17 (+0.17) 4th (1.99) 34 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection

How the results connect

17 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Downey United Football Club to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
1 favour them
+5.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 2–1 5–0 1–2 4–0 3–0 1–1 11–0 0–0 2–2 1–4 1–0 5–1 2–1 2–0 1–4 3–0 5–0 1–3 Downey United Footb… 5th Pride FC 8th Los Angeles SC 2 12th LAIFC (2) 9th Autobahn SA 3rd Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd Total Futbol Academ… 4th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 6th FC Golden State For… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 11th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:25 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Home
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.86 2.11 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
07:20 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.47 2.04 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:45 AM
Autobahn SA
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Away
Santa Monica High School
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.86 1.92 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:25 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Home
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 1.87 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:25 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +8
Home
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.52 1.84 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +10
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 0.98 1.78 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:35 AM
FC Premier
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.98 1.79 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
10:25 AM
Pride FC
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Home
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.14 1.82 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–0 2.22 1.84 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
10:25 AM
Culver City
7th · 2-0-4 · GD +0
Home
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–1 1.91 1.84 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.64 1.89 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.77 1.94 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.90 Upside
Sun May 16
10:25 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Home
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.73 1.89 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Culver City
7th · 2-0-4 · GD +0
Away
Culver City High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.67 1.88 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 6510 146+8 162.67 WWWWD -0.30 -0.01 75% 3.3
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 5320 122+10 112.20 WDWWD -0.36 -0.04 83% 2.9
3 Autobahn SA 6411 236+17 132.17 WLWDW -0.34 -0.09 95% 2.0
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6411 146+8 132.17 LWWWD +0.25 -0.24 73% 3.5
5 Downey United Football Club 7421 168+8 142.00 WWWDW +0.02 -0.14 55% 4.1
6 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6402 127+5 122.00 WWWLL -0.36 +0.10 17% 5.6
7 Culver City 6204 88+0 61.00 WLLLW +0.07 -0.07 1% 7.4
8 Pride FC 5113 69-3 40.80 WLLLD +0.31 -0.05 0% 8.3
9 LAIFC (2) 6114 513-8 40.67 LLLLD +0.14 +0.06 0% 9.7
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 6105 325-22 30.50 LWLLL -0.12 +0.35 0% 11.6
11 FC Premier 3012 48-4 10.33 LLD +0.94 -0.12 0% 8.2
12 Los Angeles SC 2 6006 423-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.40 +0.08 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.