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Bell Gardens Football Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U14 · 12 teams · Bell Gardens Football Club (all teams)

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2nd
3-2-0 record · 5 played
2.20 points per game
+10 goal diff · 12–2
WDWWDlast 5
83% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9
-0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 09:55 AM

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Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 2.20 PPG
vs

JW NORTH Stadium, JW NORTH Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.4 for, 0.5 against · 2.90 expected points)

Season so farBell Gardens Football ClubFC Golden State Force (2)
Position2nd10th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-01-0-5
Points per game2.200.50
Goals for / game2.40.5
Goals against / game0.44.2
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)D W W D WL L L W L
Biggest win5–0 vs Los Angeles SC 22–1 at Los Angeles SC 2
Worst loss—0–11 vs Autobahn SA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.14-2.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.36-0.12

Common opponents: Los Angeles SC 2 — we 5–0; they 2–1. Culver City — we 2–0; they 0–6. Pride FC — we 2–2; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Golden State Force (2) average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Golden State Force (2) concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–11 vs Autobahn SA.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Downey United Football Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Golden State Force (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:55 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bell Gardens Football Club – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.33 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.33 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 4
Loss
1.83 PPG
6th▼ down 4 6th▼ down 4 6th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

20% finish 1st
83% top 4
17% below the top 4
2.9 average finish
  1. 1st 20%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 2.67 (+0.47) 3rd (2.02) 48 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Bell Gardens Football Club to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
0 favour them
+6.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 2–1 5–0 1–2 2–0 6–0 0–0 2–1 0–1 2–0 5–0 1–3 1–0 3–0 4–0 0–3 11–0 1–1 1–5 Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd Pride FC 8th Los Angeles SC 2 12th Culver City 7th Downey United Footb… 5th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 6th LAIFC (2) 9th Autobahn SA 3rd FC Golden State For… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 6th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
12:15 PM
no score posted
LAIFC (2)
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Away
Silverlakes Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.38 2.23 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:55 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Home
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.90 2.33 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
04:15 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +8
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.54 2.23 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
08:30 AM
Autobahn SA
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Away
John Adams Middle School (
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.18 2.11 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:15 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Away
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.46 2.05 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 AM
FC Premier
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–0 2.41 2.08 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
09:55 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Home
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.70 2.05 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.78 2.03 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.54 2.06 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -19
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.73 2.11 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
1–0 1.96 2.10 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Culver City
7th · 2-0-4 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–0 1.90 2.09 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
Pride FC
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
1–0 2.11 2.09 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.78 2.07 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
3–0 2.83 2.11 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.44 2.08 Upside
Sun May 23
05:20 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.73 2.06 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC Los Angeles 2 6510 146+8 162.67 WWWWD -0.30 -0.01 74% 3.4
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 5320 122+10 112.20 WDWWD -0.36 -0.04 83% 2.9
3 Autobahn SA 6411 236+17 132.17 WLWDW -0.34 -0.09 95% 2.0
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6411 146+8 132.17 LWWWD +0.25 -0.24 75% 3.4
5 Downey United Football Club 7421 168+8 142.00 WWWDW +0.02 -0.14 53% 4.2
6 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6402 127+5 122.00 WWWLL -0.36 +0.10 19% 5.5
7 Culver City 6204 88+0 61.00 WLLLW +0.07 -0.07 1% 7.4
8 Pride FC 5113 69-3 40.80 WLLLD +0.31 -0.05 0% 8.3
9 LAIFC (2) 6114 513-8 40.67 LLLLD +0.14 +0.06 0% 9.7
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 6105 325-22 30.50 LWLLL -0.12 +0.35 0% 11.6
11 FC Premier 3012 48-4 10.33 LLD +0.94 -0.12 0% 8.3
12 Los Angeles SC 2 6006 423-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.40 +0.08 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.75 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.