TableChase Clubs

TFA-SGV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U15 · 13 teams · TFA SGV (all teams)

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5th
4-2-2 record · 8 played
1.75 points per game
+2 goal diff · 10–8
WWWDLlast 5
6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0
+0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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TFA-SGV
5th · 1.75 PPG
at
Oxnard United Soccer Club
9th · 1.00 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.0 against · 1.98 expected points)

Season so farTFA-SGVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position5th9th
Record (W-D-L)4-2-22-1-4
Points per game1.751.00
Goals for / game1.31.3
Goals against / game1.03.3
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L D W W WL W L W D
Biggest win3–1 at LA Surf SC SFV4–0 at Central Cal Aztecs 2
Worst loss0–2 at Central Coast United Soccer Club0–7 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.24-1.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.21+0.02

Common opponents: Dynamo — we 1–0; they 1–3. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 0–2; they 0–7. Oaks FC 2 — we 1–0; they 2–2. ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) — we 2–2; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Central Coast United Soccer Club, 0–1 at Valley United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 59% / draw 22% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TFA-SGV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.89 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
1.89 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.56 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
6% top 4
94% below the top 4
6.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 31%
  6. 6th 31%
  7. 7th 23%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Valley United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.25) 1st (2.56) 58 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+0.82) 2nd (2.45) 48 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 ALBION SC SCV 2.25 (+0.50) 4th (2.10) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4 Unico Futbol Club 2.17 (+0.42) 3rd (2.12) 39 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link TFA-SGV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

23 favour us
1 even
6 favour them
+2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–2 1–0 2–2 1–0 3–1 0–2 7–0 3–1 1–3 0–1 3–0 1–2 2–1 5–1 0–4 1–1 3–1 4–7 1–0 3–0 TFA-SGV 5th ALBION SC Antelope … 11th Oaks FC 2 6th Dynamo 10th Central Coast Unite… 2nd LA Surf SC SFV 13th Valley United Socce… 1st FC Man United 7th Unico Futbol Club 4th Central Cal Aztecs 2 12th ALBION SC SCV 3rd Oxnard United Socce… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -14		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 1–0 1.98 1.78 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -24		 Home
Azusa High School · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 2–0 2.56 1.85 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.30 1.80 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Home
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–0 2.29 1.84 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
10:15 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–1 0.78 1.76 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +24		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.72 1.69 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
6th · 4-1-3 · GD +9		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.47 1.67 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +12		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 0–1 1.08 1.64 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 1–1 1.53 1.63 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–0 1.73 1.64 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 0–1 0.68 1.59 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -14		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–0 2.20 1.62 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -27		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 2–0 2.52 1.66 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -24		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 2–0 2.39 1.69 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +8		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.05 1.66 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +12		 Away
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 0–1 0.88 1.63 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Valley United Soccer Club 7700 242+22 213.00 WWWWW -0.39 -0.08 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 317+24 182.57 WWWWW -0.10 -0.26 100% 1.8
3 ALBION SC SCV 8602 197+12 182.25 WWLLW +0.19 -0.20 91% 3.6
4 Unico Futbol Club 6411 217+14 132.17 DWWLW +0.24 -0.23 93% 3.4
5 TFA-SGV 8422 108+2 141.75 WWWDL +0.21 -0.12 6% 6.0
6 Oaks FC 2 8413 2516+9 131.63 DLWWW -0.75 +0.32 2% 6.6
7 FC Man United 7304 1216-4 91.29 WLWLW +0.18 -0.07 0% 7.7
8 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6204 1911+8 61.00 WWLLL +0.40 -0.22 8% 5.8
9 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7214 923-14 71.00 DWLWL +0.02 +0.16 0% 9.9
10 Dynamo 7214 1026-16 71.00 WLWLD -0.04 +0.19 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 612-6 40.67 WLLLD -0.28 +0.17 0% 9.7
12 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLLL -0.30 +0.44 0% 12.4
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8017 835-27 10.13 LLLLD +0.31 +0.19 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.