TableChase Clubs

Central Cal Aztecs 2

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U15 · 13 teams · Central Cal Aztecs (all teams)

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12th
1-0-6 record · 7 played
0.43 points per game
-24 goal diff · 7–31
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.4
-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Central Cal Aztecs 2
12th · 0.43 PPG
vs
Unico Futbol Club
4th · 2.17 PPG

Kern County Soccer Park, 6 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.0 for, 5.2 against · 0.10 expected points)

Season so farCentral Cal Aztecs 2Unico Futbol Club
Position12th4th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-64-1-1
Points per game0.432.17
Goals for / game1.03.5
Goals against / game4.41.2
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L L L LW L W W D
Biggest win4–3 vs LA Surf SC SFV7–0 vs FC Man United
Worst loss0–8 at Central Coast Surf Soccer1–5 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.53+1.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.30+0.24

Common opponents: ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) — we 0–1; they 3–1. ALBION SC SCV — we 1–2; they 2–0. FC Man United — we 1–5; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Unico Futbol Club score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–8 at Central Coast Surf Soccer, 0–1 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2), 0–4 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 2%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) sit 11th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.43.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Unico Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Cal Aztecs 2 – Unico Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.38 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Win
0.75 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 12th— holds 12th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Loss
0.38 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 48%
  13. 13th 46%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Valley United Soccer Club 3.00 (+2.57) 1st (2.56) 69 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 59 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+2.14) 2nd (2.45) 59 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 ALBION SC SCV 2.25 (+1.82) 4th (2.10) 51 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
4 Unico Futbol Club 2.17 (+1.74) 3rd (2.12) 50 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
5 TFA-SGV 1.75 (+1.32) 6th (1.63) 39 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
6 Oaks FC 2 1.63 (+1.20) 7th (1.51) 37 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
7 FC Man United 1.29 (+0.86) 8th (1.31) 28 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
8 Central Coast Surf Soccer 1.00 (+0.57) 5th (1.64) 21 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
9 Oxnard United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.57) 10th (0.88) 21 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 Dynamo 1.00 (+0.57) 11th (0.81) 21 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 0.67 (+0.24) 9th (0.91) A point next game

How the results connect

23 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Central Cal Aztecs 2 to Unico Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
22 favour them
-6.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 0–2 0–1 1–3 1–5 0–7 2–2 1–1 4–3 1–3 0–3 5–1 1–3 1–2 0–4 2–1 0–8 1–2 1–1 0–7 0–7 Central Cal Aztecs 2 12th ALBION SC SCV 3rd ALBION SC Antelope … 11th FC Man United 7th LA Surf SC SFV 13th Oxnard United Socce… 9th Central Coast Surf … 8th TFA-SGV 5th Central Coast Unite… 2nd Dynamo 10th Unico Futbol Club 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.44 · 1st hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.10 0.39 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.05 0.35 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Away
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.32 0.35 Upside
Sat Nov 7
04:30 PM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Away
Van Nuys / Sherman Oaks Rec Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–3 0.77 0.39 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:10 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -27		 Away
Calabasas HS · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–2 1.18 0.45 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.20 0.43 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.62 0.45 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +12		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.11 0.42 Upside
Sun Mar 21
02:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +24		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.02 0.40 Upside
Sun Apr 4
01:00 PM		 Oaks FC 2
6th · 4-1-3 · GD +9		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.26 0.39 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -14		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.74 0.41 Upside
Sun Apr 11
01:00 PM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.56 0.42 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.05 0.40 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–5 0.03 0.38 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM		 TFA-SGV
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.46 0.38 Upside
Sun May 2
01:00 PM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–2 1.06 0.41 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +24		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.04 0.40 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Valley United Soccer Club 7700 242+22 213.00 WWWWW -0.39 -0.08 100% 1.4
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 317+24 182.57 WWWWW -0.10 -0.26 100% 1.8
3 ALBION SC SCV 8602 197+12 182.25 WWLLW +0.19 -0.20 92% 3.5
4 Unico Futbol Club 6411 217+14 132.17 DWWLW +0.24 -0.23 93% 3.4
5 TFA-SGV 8422 108+2 141.75 WWWDL +0.21 -0.12 6% 5.9
6 Oaks FC 2 8413 2516+9 131.63 DLWWW -0.75 +0.32 2% 6.6
7 FC Man United 7304 1216-4 91.29 WLWLW +0.18 -0.07 0% 7.7
8 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6204 1911+8 61.00 WWLLL +0.40 -0.22 8% 5.8
9 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7214 923-14 71.00 DWLWL +0.02 +0.16 0% 9.9
10 Dynamo 7214 1026-16 71.00 WLWLD -0.04 +0.19 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 612-6 40.67 WLLLD -0.28 +0.17 0% 9.7
12 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLLL -0.30 +0.44 0% 12.4
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8017 835-27 10.13 LLLLD +0.31 +0.19 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.