TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC SCV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U15 · 13 teams · ALBION SC SCV (all teams)

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3rd
6-0-2 record · 8 played
2.25 points per game
+12 goal diff · 19–7
WWLLWlast 5
90% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6
+0.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:50 AM

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ALBION SC SCV
3rd · 2.25 PPG
vs
FC Man United
7th · 1.29 PPG

Turf - West Ranch High School, Stadium ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.0 against · 2.25 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC SCVFC Man United
Position3rd7th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-23-0-4
Points per game2.251.29
Goals for / game2.41.7
Goals against / game0.92.3
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)W L L W WW L W L W
Biggest win5–0 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club5–1 vs Central Cal Aztecs 2
Worst loss0–2 at Unico Futbol Club0–7 at Unico Futbol Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.08-0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.19+0.18

Common opponents: Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 5–0; they 0–3. Oaks FC 2 — we 2–1; they 3–1. LA Surf SC SFV — we 3–1; they 2–0. Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 2–1; they 5–1. Unico Futbol Club — we 0–2; they 0–7. Valley United Soccer Club — we 0–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Unico Futbol Club, 0–1 vs Valley United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 69% / draw 17% / loss 13%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Man United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC SCV – FC Man United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.33 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.33 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.11 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
90% top 4
10% below the top 4
3.6 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 7%
  3. 3rd 36%
  4. 4th 46%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Valley United Soccer Club 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.56) 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+0.32) 2nd (2.45) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC SCV to FC Man United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
4 even
10 favour them
+1.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–1 3–1 0–2 2–1 1–3 2–1 1–5 0–2 7–0 5–0 3–0 4–1 2–3 4–3 3–0 2–2 0–7 1–0 2–1 1–1 ALBION SC SCV 3rd Valley United Socce… 1st LA Surf SC SFV 13th Oaks FC 2 6th Central Cal Aztecs 2 12th Unico Futbol Club 4th Central Coast Unite… 2nd Central Coast Surf … 8th Oxnard United Socce… 9th TFA-SGV 5th FC Man United 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.20 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:50 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4		 Home
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–0 2.25 2.25 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
08:30 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
Central Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–0 2.37 2.26 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Away
Ribet Academy · grass		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–0 2.53 2.29 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
02:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +24		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.87 2.17 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
6th · 4-1-3 · GD +9		 Away
River Ridge		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.73 2.13 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -27		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 4–0 2.82 2.18 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -24		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 4–0 2.84 2.23 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.81 2.20 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–0 1.64 2.17 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.46 2.13 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 0–1 0.80 2.06 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -14		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–0 2.61 2.09 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.02 2.08 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–0 2.18 2.09 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 3–0 2.69 2.11 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Home
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–0 1.85 2.10 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Valley United Soccer Club 7700 242+22 213.00 WWWWW -0.39 -0.08 100% 1.4
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 317+24 182.57 WWWWW -0.10 -0.26 100% 1.8
3 ALBION SC SCV 8602 197+12 182.25 WWLLW +0.19 -0.20 90% 3.6
4 Unico Futbol Club 6411 217+14 132.17 DWWLW +0.24 -0.23 94% 3.4
5 TFA-SGV 8422 108+2 141.75 WWWDL +0.21 -0.12 6% 5.9
6 Oaks FC 2 8413 2516+9 131.63 DLWWW -0.75 +0.32 2% 6.5
7 FC Man United 7304 1216-4 91.29 WLWLW +0.18 -0.07 0% 7.7
8 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6204 1911+8 61.00 WWLLL +0.40 -0.22 8% 5.8
9 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7214 923-14 71.00 DWLWL +0.02 +0.16 0% 9.9
10 Dynamo 7214 1026-16 71.00 WLWLD -0.04 +0.19 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 612-6 40.67 WLLLD -0.28 +0.17 0% 9.7
12 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLLL -0.30 +0.44 0% 12.4
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8017 835-27 10.13 LLLLD +0.31 +0.19 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.