TableChase Clubs

Central Coast Surf Soccer

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U15 · 13 teams · Central Coast Surf Soccer (all teams)

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8th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
+8 goal diff · 19–11
WWLLLlast 5
8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.8
+0.40 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:30 AM

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Central Coast Surf Soccer
8th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Dynamo
10th · 1.00 PPG

Talley Fields, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.5 for, 1.4 against · 2.67 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast Surf SoccerDynamo
Position8th10th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-42-1-4
Points per game1.001.00
Goals for / game3.21.4
Goals against / game1.83.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L L L W WD L W L W
Biggest win8–0 vs Central Cal Aztecs 23–1 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club
Worst loss1–4 vs ALBION SC SCV0–8 vs Valley United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.89-1.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.40-0.04

Common opponents: Valley United Soccer Club — we 0–2; they 0–8. Oxnard United Soccer Club — we 7–0; they 3–1. Oaks FC 2 — we 2–3; they 4–7.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Dynamo concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–8 vs Valley United Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Valley United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dynamo game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast Surf Soccer – Dynamo) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.29 PPG		 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 1
Win
1.29 PPG		 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG		 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1
Loss
0.86 PPG		 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
8% top 4
92% below the top 4
5.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 36%
  6. 6th 30%
  7. 7th 18%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Valley United Soccer Club 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.56) 66 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.57) 2nd (2.45) 56 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection
3 ALBION SC SCV 2.25 (+1.25) 4th (2.10) 48 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
4 Unico Futbol Club 2.17 (+1.17) 3rd (2.12) 47 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 TFA-SGV 1.75 (+0.75) 6th (1.63) 36 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
6 Oaks FC 2 1.63 (+0.63) 7th (1.51) 34 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 FC Man United 1.29 (+0.29) 8th (1.31) 25 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

How the results connect

24 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast Surf Soccer to Dynamo through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us
2 even
4 favour them
+3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 7–4 7–0 1–3 0–2 8–0 3–0 1–2 1–0 1–0 3–1 1–1 0–1 1–4 2–1 3–1 0–2 7–0 3–0 1–2 2–0 Central Coast Surf … 8th Oaks FC 2 6th Oxnard United Socce… 9th Valley United Socce… 1st ALBION SC SCV 3rd Central Coast Unite… 2nd ALBION SC Antelope … 11th TFA-SGV 5th LA Surf SC SFV 13th Unico Futbol Club 4th Dynamo 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:30 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.67 1.24 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
02:30 PM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–1 2.15 1.35 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:05 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -27		 Away
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.71 1.50 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
03:35 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Away
Elings Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.87 1.44 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Away
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.46 1.44 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–2 0.71 1.38 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -24		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 4–1 2.74 1.48 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -14		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–1 2.59 1.56 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
02:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +24		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.54 1.50 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +12		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.98 1.46 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.09 1.50 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–2 1.17 1.48 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
6th · 4-1-3 · GD +9		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–2 1.46 1.48 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
02:30 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 2–1 2.33 1.52 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.47 1.57 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.86 1.58 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -27		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 5–1 2.83 1.64 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–1 1.72 1.64 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Valley United Soccer Club 7700 242+22 213.00 WWWWW -0.39 -0.08 100% 1.4
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 317+24 182.57 WWWWW -0.10 -0.26 100% 1.8
3 ALBION SC SCV 8602 197+12 182.25 WWLLW +0.19 -0.20 90% 3.6
4 Unico Futbol Club 6411 217+14 132.17 DWWLW +0.24 -0.23 94% 3.4
5 TFA-SGV 8422 108+2 141.75 WWWDL +0.21 -0.12 6% 5.9
6 Oaks FC 2 8413 2516+9 131.63 DLWWW -0.75 +0.32 2% 6.5
7 FC Man United 7304 1216-4 91.29 WLWLW +0.18 -0.07 0% 7.7
8 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6204 1911+8 61.00 WWLLL +0.40 -0.22 8% 5.8
9 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7214 923-14 71.00 DWLWL +0.02 +0.16 0% 9.9
10 Dynamo 7214 1026-16 71.00 WLWLD -0.04 +0.19 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 612-6 40.67 WLLLD -0.28 +0.17 0% 9.7
12 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLLL -0.30 +0.44 0% 12.4
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8017 835-27 10.13 LLLLD +0.31 +0.19 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.