TableChase Clubs

Oaks FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U15 · 13 teams · Oaks FC (all teams)

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6th
4-1-3 record · 8 played
1.63 points per game
+9 goal diff · 25–16
DLWWWlast 5
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.6
-0.75 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Oaks FC 2
6th · 1.63 PPG
vs
Unico Futbol Club
4th · 2.17 PPG

River Ridge, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 3.0 against · 0.96 expected points)

Season so farOaks FC 2Unico Futbol Club
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-34-1-1
Points per game1.632.17
Goals for / game3.13.5
Goals against / game2.01.2
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W W L DW L W W D
Biggest win8–1 vs Central Cal Aztecs 27–0 vs FC Man United
Worst loss1–3 at FC Man United1–5 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.52+1.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.75+0.24

Common opponents: ALBION SC SCV — we 1–2; they 2–0. FC Man United — we 1–3; they 7–0. TFA-SGV — we 0–1; they 1–1. Dynamo — we 7–4; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Unico Futbol Club score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs TFA-SGV.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 26%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    TFA-SGV sit 5th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.63.

    A point moves us above TFA-SGV on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Unico Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oaks FC 2 – Unico Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.56 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Win
1.78 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Draw
1.56 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.44 PPG		 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
99% below the top 4
6.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 29%
  7. 7th 36%
  8. 8th 17%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Valley United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.37) 1st (2.56) 59 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+0.94) 2nd (2.45) 49 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
3 ALBION SC SCV 2.25 (+0.62) 4th (2.10) 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 Unico Futbol Club 2.17 (+0.54) 3rd (2.12) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
5 TFA-SGV 1.75 (+0.12) 6th (1.63) A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Oaks FC 2 to Unico Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
1 even
19 favour them
-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 1–1 1–2 0–2 7–4 0–7 1–3 0–7 3–1 1–3 0–2 5–1 2–2 2–1 1–3 0–3 0–1 2–1 1–3 2–2 Oaks FC 2 6th TFA-SGV 5th ALBION SC SCV 3rd Dynamo 10th FC Man United 7th LA Surf SC SFV 13th Oxnard United Socce… 9th Central Coast Unite… 2nd ALBION SC Antelope … 11th Unico Futbol Club 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.32 · 2nd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
River Ridge		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 2–2 0.96 1.55 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
River Ridge		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.20 1.62 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +24		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.40 1.51 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -14		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.24 1.57 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +12		 Home
River Ridge		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.06 1.53 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.98 1.56 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -27		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 4–1 2.62 1.63 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.30 1.61 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.56 1.55 Upside
Sun Apr 4
01:00 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -24		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.66 1.61 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.34 1.65 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.36 1.63 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–3 0.68 1.59 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
58%		 2–1 1.94 1.60 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +24		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.61 1.56 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.38 1.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Valley United Soccer Club 7700 242+22 213.00 WWWWW -0.39 -0.08 100% 1.4
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 317+24 182.57 WWWWW -0.10 -0.26 100% 1.8
3 ALBION SC SCV 8602 197+12 182.25 WWLLW +0.19 -0.20 92% 3.6
4 Unico Futbol Club 6411 217+14 132.17 DWWLW +0.24 -0.23 93% 3.4
5 TFA-SGV 8422 108+2 141.75 WWWDL +0.21 -0.12 6% 5.9
6 Oaks FC 2 8413 2516+9 131.63 DLWWW -0.75 +0.32 2% 6.6
7 FC Man United 7304 1216-4 91.29 WLWLW +0.18 -0.07 0% 7.7
8 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6204 1911+8 61.00 WWLLL +0.40 -0.22 8% 5.8
9 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7214 923-14 71.00 DWLWL +0.02 +0.16 0% 9.9
10 Dynamo 7214 1026-16 71.00 WLWLD -0.04 +0.19 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 612-6 40.67 WLLLD -0.28 +0.17 0% 9.7
12 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLLL -0.30 +0.44 0% 12.4
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8017 835-27 10.13 LLLLD +0.31 +0.19 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.