TableChase Clubs

Central Coast United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U15 · 13 teams · Central Coast United Soccer Club (all teams)

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2nd
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+24 goal diff · 31–7
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8
-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:20 PM

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Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 2.57 PPG
at
Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 3.00 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Olivar ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.1 against · 1.07 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast United Soccer ClubValley United Soccer Club
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)6-0-17-0-0
Points per game2.573.00
Goals for / game4.43.4
Goals against / game1.00.3
Clean sheets45
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W W W WW W W W W
Biggest win12–0 vs LA Surf SC SFV8–0 at Dynamo
Worst loss0–5 at ALBION SC SCV—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.44+2.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.10-0.39

Common opponents: ALBION SC SCV — we 0–5; they 1–0. FC Man United — we 3–0; they 2–1. TFA-SGV — we 2–0; they 1–0. Central Coast Surf Soccer — we 2–1; they 2–0. LA Surf SC SFV — we 12–0; they 7–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Valley United Soccer Club score 3.4/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Valley United Soccer Club concede only 0.3/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at ALBION SC SCV.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Valley United Soccer Club have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:20 PM at Valley United Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast United Soccer Club – Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.25 PPG		 2nd— holds 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Win
2.63 PPG		 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.38 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG		 2nd— holds 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

35% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.8 average finish
  1. 1st 35%
  2. 2nd 50%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Valley United Soccer Club 3.00 (+0.43) 1st (2.56) 54 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection

How the results connect

27 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast United Soccer Club to Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
11 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 0–2 2–0 0–1 3–0 1–2 12–0 1–7 0–5 0–1 2–2 0–3 2–0 1–2 7–0 0–7 3–1 1–3 0–8 Central Coast Unite… 2nd Central Coast Surf … 8th TFA-SGV 5th FC Man United 7th LA Surf SC SFV 13th ALBION SC SCV 3rd Oxnard United Socce… 9th ALBION SC Antelope … 11th Dynamo 10th Valley United Socce… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.26 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:20 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.07 2.38 Upside
Sat Oct 31
04:30 PM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Away
Van Nuys / Sherman Oaks Rec Center		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.85 2.44 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Oaks FC 2
6th · 4-1-3 · GD +9		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 4–1 2.50 2.44 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
02:00 PM		 ALBION SC SCV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +12		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.93 2.40 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4		 Away
Citrus College · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.49 2.40 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
5th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.08 2.38 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
02:00 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 3–1 2.33 2.38 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
02:00 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.96 2.35 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
10:55 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–0 2.61 2.36 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
02:00 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -24		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 7–0 2.97 2.40 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -14		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–1 2.80 2.42 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -27		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–0 2.93 2.45 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
02:00 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 3–0 2.75 2.46 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
02:00 PM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -16		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–1 2.92 2.49 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
02:00 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +22		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.34 2.43 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
6th · 4-1-3 · GD +9		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 2.43 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -24		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–0 2.94 2.45 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Valley United Soccer Club 7700 242+22 213.00 WWWWW -0.39 -0.08 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 317+24 182.57 WWWWW -0.10 -0.26 100% 1.8
3 ALBION SC SCV 8602 197+12 182.25 WWLLW +0.19 -0.20 90% 3.6
4 Unico Futbol Club 6411 217+14 132.17 DWWLW +0.24 -0.23 93% 3.4
5 TFA-SGV 8422 108+2 141.75 WWWDL +0.21 -0.12 5% 6.0
6 Oaks FC 2 8413 2516+9 131.63 DLWWW -0.75 +0.32 2% 6.6
7 FC Man United 7304 1216-4 91.29 WLWLW +0.18 -0.07 0% 7.7
8 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6204 1911+8 61.00 WWLLL +0.40 -0.22 9% 5.7
9 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7214 923-14 71.00 DWLWL +0.02 +0.16 0% 9.9
10 Dynamo 7214 1026-16 71.00 WLWLD -0.04 +0.19 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 612-6 40.67 WLLLD -0.28 +0.17 0% 9.6
12 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLLL -0.30 +0.44 0% 12.4
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8017 835-27 10.13 LLLLD +0.31 +0.19 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.