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Total Futbol Academy - OC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U14 · 16 teams · Total Futbol Academy - OC (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+11 goal diff · 16–5
WWWlast 3
76% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4
-0.60 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Total Futbol Academy - OC
3rd · 3.00 PPG
at
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2.33 PPG

Pine Community Park, Pine Community Park ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.4 against · 1.26 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol Academy - OCCity SC - San Diego
Position3rd6th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-02-1-0
Points per game3.002.33
Goals for / game5.32.7
Goals against / game1.70.3
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W WW D W
Biggest win6–2 at ALBION SC Riverside5–1 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.65+1.07
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.60-0.46

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    City SC - San Diego concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Pine Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Strikers FC North sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Strikers FC North on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the City SC - San Diego game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy - OC – City SC - San Diego) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.50 PPG
4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Win
3.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.25 PPG
6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

12% finish 1st
76% top 4
24% below the top 4
3.4 average finish
  1. 1st 12%
  2. 2nd 22%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.56) Win next game
2 Strikers FC North 3.00 (+0.00) 4th (2.20) Win next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 7th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Away
Pine Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.26 2.56 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:15 AM
Elite FC
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–1 2.80 2.61 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
11th · 0-1-3 · GD -11
Home
Gladstone Middle School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
5–1 2.73 2.63 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 2.66 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.87 2.44 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
3–2 1.50 2.34 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.28 2.23 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
6–1 2.80 2.28 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.94 2.25 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.77 2.29 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–3 1.16 2.21 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC
8th · 2-0-1 · GD -2
Home
Gladstone Middle School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
4–1 2.48 2.23 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 190+19 123.00 WWWW -1.22 +0.21 98% 1.6
2 Strikers FC North 3300 174+13 93.00 WWW -1.67 +0.23 72% 3.5
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3300 165+11 93.00 WWW -0.60 -0.02 76% 3.4
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.47 -0.02 80% 3.2
5 Inland Surf 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.50 +0.26 18% 5.9
6 City SC - San Diego 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.01 45% 4.6
7 BOCA OC 3201 42+2 62.00 WWL +0.50 -0.16 12% 6.3
8 Reds FC 3201 68-2 62.00 WWL +0.02 +0.02 0% 8.6
9 CITY SC San Marcos 3102 69-3 31.00 LWL +0.01 +0.02 0% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.02 0% 10.2
11 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4013 617-11 10.25 DLLL +1.36 -0.42 0% 11.4
12 Laguna United 3003 27-5 00.00 LLL +0.42 -0.09 0% 12.3
13 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.63 -0.03 0% 12.7
14 Elite FC 3003 011-11 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.33 0% 13.9
15 California Football Academy 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +1.51 -0.25 0% 13.8
16 City SC Southwest 3003 319-16 00.00 LLL +1.23 -0.15 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.