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Strikers FC North

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U14 · 16 teams · Strikers FC North (all teams)

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2nd
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+13 goal diff · 17–4
WWWlast 3
72% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
-1.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:40 AM

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Strikers FC North
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
CITY SC San Marcos
9th · 1.00 PPG

Palomar College Minkoff Field, Minkoff Field ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.9 against · 2.31 expected points)

Season so farStrikers FC NorthCITY SC San Marcos
Position2nd9th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-01-0-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game5.72.0
Goals against / game1.33.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W WL W L
Biggest win6–1 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire4–0 vs City SC Southwest
Worst loss—2–6 at Total Futbol Academy - OC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.74-0.48
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.67+0.01

Common opponents: City SC Southwest — we 7–3; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:40 AM at Palomar College Minkoff Field.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Santa Ana sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above ALBION SC Santa Ana on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CITY SC San Marcos game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Strikers FC North – CITY SC San Marcos) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 5th▼ down 3
Loss
2.25 PPG
6th▼ down 4 5th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

10% finish 1st
72% top 4
28% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st 10%
  2. 2nd 20%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.56) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link Strikers FC North to CITY SC San Marcos through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–3 0–4 Strikers FC North 2nd City SC Southwest 16th CITY SC San Marcos 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.23 · 2nd hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:40 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away
Palomar College Minkoff Field
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.31 2.83 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Reds FC
8th · 2-0-1 · GD -2
Home
OC Great Park
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.51 2.77 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
04:30 PM
ALBION SC San Diego
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
Madison High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.63 2.74 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.32 2.54 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 2.47 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Laguna United
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 2.47 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.92 2.41 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.03 2.29 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.86 2.33 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.67 2.21 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.69 2.17 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
OC Great Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.58 2.20 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 190+19 123.00 WWWW -1.22 +0.21 98% 1.6
2 Strikers FC North 3300 174+13 93.00 WWW -1.67 +0.23 72% 3.5
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3300 165+11 93.00 WWW -0.60 -0.02 75% 3.4
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.47 -0.02 80% 3.2
5 Inland Surf 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.50 +0.26 18% 5.9
6 City SC - San Diego 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.01 44% 4.7
7 BOCA OC 3201 42+2 62.00 WWL +0.50 -0.16 12% 6.3
8 Reds FC 3201 68-2 62.00 WWL +0.02 +0.02 1% 8.5
9 CITY SC San Marcos 3102 69-3 31.00 LWL +0.01 +0.02 0% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.02 0% 10.2
11 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4013 617-11 10.25 DLLL +1.36 -0.42 0% 11.3
12 Laguna United 3003 27-5 00.00 LLL +0.42 -0.09 0% 12.3
13 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.63 -0.03 0% 12.8
14 Elite FC 3003 011-11 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.33 0% 13.9
15 California Football Academy 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +1.51 -0.25 0% 13.8
16 City SC Southwest 3003 319-16 00.00 LLL +1.23 -0.15 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.