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Laguna United

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U14 · 16 teams · Laguna United (all teams)

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12th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-5 goal diff · 2–7
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.2
+0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Laguna United
12th · 0.00 PPG
at
Inland Surf
5th · 2.33 PPG

Central City Park #2, Central City Park Field #2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.1 against · 0.49 expected points)

Season so farLaguna UnitedInland Surf
Position12th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-32-1-0
Points per game0.002.33
Goals for / game0.74.0
Goals against / game2.31.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L LW W D
Biggest win—6–1 vs California Football Academy
Worst loss1–4 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.77+0.95
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.42-1.50

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Inland Surf score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs BOCA OC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Central City Park #2.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire sit 11th on 0.25 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Inland Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Laguna United – Inland Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 4
Win
0.75 PPG
11th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 3 13th▼ down 1
Draw
0.25 PPG
11th▲ up 1 12th— holds 16th▼ down 4
Loss
0.00 PPG
12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 12%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 16%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 10%
  16. 16th 6%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.56) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Strikers FC North 3.00 (+3.00) 4th (2.20) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.23) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.50 (+2.50) 2nd (2.25) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
5 Inland Surf 2.33 (+2.33) 6th (1.82) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 City SC - San Diego 2.33 (+2.33) 5th (2.04) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 BOCA OC 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.77) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Reds FC 2.00 (+2.00) 8th (1.38) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 CITY SC San Marcos 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.14) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 ALBION SC Riverside 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.14) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
11 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 0.25 (+0.25) 11th (0.96) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 11th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Away
Central City Park #2
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.49 0.12 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:30 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
11th · 0-1-3 · GD -11
Away
San Bernardino Valley College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–2 1.31 0.36 Upside
Sun Nov 8
05:30 PM
California Football Academy
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Away
Aliso Niguel High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.68 0.58 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.44 0.56 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–2 1.31 0.65 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.46 0.63 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Reds FC
8th · 2-0-1 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.99 0.67 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Elite FC
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–1 1.88 0.78 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.74 0.86 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.45 0.83 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.26 0.79 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.40 0.83 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 190+19 123.00 WWWW -1.22 +0.21 98% 1.6
2 Strikers FC North 3300 174+13 93.00 WWW -1.67 +0.23 71% 3.6
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3300 165+11 93.00 WWW -0.60 -0.02 79% 3.2
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.47 -0.02 77% 3.3
5 Inland Surf 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.50 +0.26 18% 5.9
6 City SC - San Diego 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.01 43% 4.7
7 BOCA OC 3201 42+2 62.00 WWL +0.50 -0.16 14% 6.3
8 Reds FC 3201 68-2 62.00 WWL +0.02 +0.02 1% 8.5
9 CITY SC San Marcos 3102 69-3 31.00 LWL +0.01 +0.02 0% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.02 0% 10.1
11 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4013 617-11 10.25 DLLL +1.36 -0.42 0% 11.4
12 Laguna United 3003 27-5 00.00 LLL +0.42 -0.09 0% 12.2
13 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.63 -0.03 0% 12.8
14 Elite FC 3003 011-11 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.33 0% 13.9
15 California Football Academy 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +1.51 -0.25 0% 13.9
16 City SC Southwest 3003 319-16 00.00 LLL +1.23 -0.15 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.