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ALBION SC Santa Ana

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U14 · 16 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+19 goal diff · 19–0
WWWWlast 4
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6
-1.22 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1.00 PPG

Galway Downs, #18 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.0 against · 2.63 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa AnaALBION SC Riverside
Position1st10th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-01-0-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game4.81.7
Goals against / game0.03.0
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WW L L
Biggest win8–0 vs City SC Southwest2–1 at Laguna United
Worst loss—2–6 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.39-0.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.22+0.12

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Galway Downs.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Riverside game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana – ALBION SC Riverside) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.40 PPG
4th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 4 6th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

63% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
1.6 average finish
  1. 1st 63%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana to ALBION SC Riverside through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 1–0 1–2 ALBION SC Santa Ana 1st BOCA OC 7th Laguna United 12th ALBION SC Riverside 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 3rd hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
Galway Downs
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.63 2.93 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
03:00 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +13
Away
RJRSP
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.62 2.71 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
05:00 PM
Reds FC
8th · 2-0-1 · GD -2
Away
Orange County Great Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.58 2.69 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.81 2.70 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.96 2.62 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.61 2.62 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.09 2.57 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
11th · 0-1-3 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.87 2.60 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.18 2.56 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Laguna United
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.64 2.57 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 2.56 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 190+19 123.00 WWWW -1.22 +0.21 98% 1.6
2 Strikers FC North 3300 174+13 93.00 WWW -1.67 +0.23 71% 3.6
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3300 165+11 93.00 WWW -0.60 -0.02 79% 3.2
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.47 -0.02 77% 3.3
5 Inland Surf 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.50 +0.26 18% 5.9
6 City SC - San Diego 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.01 43% 4.7
7 BOCA OC 3201 42+2 62.00 WWL +0.50 -0.16 14% 6.3
8 Reds FC 3201 68-2 62.00 WWL +0.02 +0.02 1% 8.5
9 CITY SC San Marcos 3102 69-3 31.00 LWL +0.01 +0.02 0% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.02 0% 10.1
11 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4013 617-11 10.25 DLLL +1.36 -0.42 0% 11.4
12 Laguna United 3003 27-5 00.00 LLL +0.42 -0.09 0% 12.2
13 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.63 -0.03 0% 12.8
14 Elite FC 3003 011-11 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.33 0% 13.9
15 California Football Academy 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +1.51 -0.25 0% 13.9
16 City SC Southwest 3003 319-16 00.00 LLL +1.23 -0.15 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.