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City SC - San Diego

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U14 · 16 teams · City SC - San Diego (all teams)

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6th
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+7 goal diff · 8–1
WDWlast 3
44% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
-0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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City SC - San Diego
6th · 2.33 PPG
vs

Pine Community Park, Pine Community Park ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.1 against · 1.55 expected points)

Season so farCity SC - San DiegoTotal Futbol Academy - OC
Position6th3rd
Record (W-D-L)2-1-03-0-0
Points per game2.333.00
Goals for / game2.75.3
Goals against / game0.31.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W D WW W W
Biggest win5–1 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire6–2 at ALBION SC Riverside
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.07+1.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.46-0.60

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Total Futbol Academy - OC score 5.3/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 19% / loss 35%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Total Futbol Academy - OC have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Inland Surf sit 5th on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.33.

    A point moves us above Inland Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Total Futbol Academy - OC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (City SC - San Diego – Total Futbol Academy - OC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG
6th— holds 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2
Win
2.50 PPG
4th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
6th— holds 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2
Loss
1.75 PPG
8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
44% top 4
56% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 9%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 24%
  6. 6th 19%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+0.67) 1st (2.56) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Strikers FC North 3.00 (+0.67) 4th (2.20) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3.00 (+0.67) 3rd (2.23) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.50 (+0.17) 2nd (2.25) Win next game
5 Inland Surf 2.33 (+0.00) 6th (1.82) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 6th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
Pine Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 2.14 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
CITY SC San Marcos
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Home
Aviara Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.34 2.18 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
10:55 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
UC Riverside · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.14 2.17 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Away
Central City Park #2
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.45 2.07 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.48 1.99 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Elite FC
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.64 2.07 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
10:30 AM
BOCA OC
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.56 2.02 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.72 1.90 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 1.94 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Reds FC
8th · 2-0-1 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.05 1.95 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Laguna United
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
2–0 2.40 1.98 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.79 2.04 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 190+19 123.00 WWWW -1.22 +0.21 98% 1.6
2 Strikers FC North 3300 174+13 93.00 WWW -1.67 +0.23 72% 3.5
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3300 165+11 93.00 WWW -0.60 -0.02 75% 3.4
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.47 -0.02 80% 3.2
5 Inland Surf 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.50 +0.26 18% 5.9
6 City SC - San Diego 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.01 44% 4.7
7 BOCA OC 3201 42+2 62.00 WWL +0.50 -0.16 12% 6.3
8 Reds FC 3201 68-2 62.00 WWL +0.02 +0.02 1% 8.5
9 CITY SC San Marcos 3102 69-3 31.00 LWL +0.01 +0.02 0% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.02 0% 10.2
11 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4013 617-11 10.25 DLLL +1.36 -0.42 0% 11.3
12 Laguna United 3003 27-5 00.00 LLL +0.42 -0.09 0% 12.3
13 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.63 -0.03 0% 12.8
14 Elite FC 3003 011-11 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.33 0% 13.9
15 California Football Academy 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +1.51 -0.25 0% 13.8
16 City SC Southwest 3003 319-16 00.00 LLL +1.23 -0.15 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.