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Inland Surf

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U14 · 16 teams · Inland Surf (all teams)

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5th
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+8 goal diff · 12–4
DWWlast 3
18% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.9
-1.50 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Inland Surf
5th · 2.33 PPG
vs
Laguna United
12th · 0.00 PPG

Central City Park #2, Central City Park Field #2 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.2 against · 2.38 expected points)

Season so farInland SurfLaguna United
Position5th12th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-00-0-3
Points per game2.330.00
Goals for / game4.00.7
Goals against / game1.32.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W DL L L
Biggest win6–1 vs California Football Academy—
Worst loss—1–4 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.95-0.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.50+0.42

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Laguna United average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Laguna United have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire sit 4th on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.33.

    A win moves us above FLYTE SC- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Laguna United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Inland Surf – Laguna United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
2.50 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3
Loss
1.75 PPG
8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
18% top 4
82% below the top 4
5.9 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 9%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 26%
  7. 7th 25%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+0.67) 1st (2.56) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Strikers FC North 3.00 (+0.67) 4th (2.20) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3.00 (+0.67) 3rd (2.23) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.50 (+0.17) 2nd (2.25) Win next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 1st hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Laguna United
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Home
Central City Park #2
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.38 2.34 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
Hickman Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.38 2.35 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2-1-0 · GD +7
Home
Central City Park #2
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.34 2.18 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.05 2.16 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.64 2.22 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–3 1.33 2.12 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.93 2.00 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Reds FC
8th · 2-0-1 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 2.02 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 1.94 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–1 2.00 1.95 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
03:30 PM
BOCA OC
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.42 1.91 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Away
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.50 1.82 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 190+19 123.00 WWWW -1.22 +0.21 98% 1.6
2 Strikers FC North 3300 174+13 93.00 WWW -1.67 +0.23 71% 3.6
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3300 165+11 93.00 WWW -0.60 -0.02 74% 3.4
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.47 -0.02 79% 3.2
5 Inland Surf 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.50 +0.26 18% 5.9
6 City SC - San Diego 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.01 47% 4.6
7 BOCA OC 3201 42+2 62.00 WWL +0.50 -0.16 12% 6.3
8 Reds FC 3201 68-2 62.00 WWL +0.02 +0.02 1% 8.6
9 CITY SC San Marcos 3102 69-3 31.00 LWL +0.01 +0.02 0% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.02 0% 10.0
11 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4013 617-11 10.25 DLLL +1.36 -0.42 0% 11.4
12 Laguna United 3003 27-5 00.00 LLL +0.42 -0.09 0% 12.3
13 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.63 -0.03 0% 12.8
14 Elite FC 3003 011-11 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.33 0% 13.8
15 California Football Academy 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +1.51 -0.25 0% 13.9
16 City SC Southwest 3003 319-16 00.00 LLL +1.23 -0.15 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.