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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U14 · 16 teams · FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (all teams)

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4th
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+13 goal diff · 15–2
WDWWlast 4
78% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
-0.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:45 PM

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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
4th · 2.50 PPG
at
Elite FC
14th · 0.00 PPG

Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park, Field #3 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.8 against · 2.67 expected points)

Season so farFLYTE SC- Inland EmpireElite FC
Position4th14th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-00-0-3
Points per game2.500.00
Goals for / game3.80.0
Goals against / game0.53.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)W W D WL L L
Biggest win7–0 vs ALBION SC San Diego—
Worst loss—0–4 vs Strikers FC North
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.68-1.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.47+1.65

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Elite FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 3 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Elite FC concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–4 vs Strikers FC North.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs City SC - San Diego.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Elite FC have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:45 PM at Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FLYTE SC- Inland Empire – Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.60 PPG
4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Win
2.60 PPG
4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Draw
2.20 PPG
6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 4
Loss
2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 4 8th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st
78% top 4
22% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 11%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+0.50) 1st (2.56) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
2 Strikers FC North 3.00 (+0.50) 4th (2.20) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3.00 (+0.50) 3rd (2.23) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link FLYTE SC- Inland Empire to Elite FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–6 4–0 3–3 3–0 FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 4th FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 11th Strikers FC North 2nd Inland Surf 5th Elite FC 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 8th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:45 PM
Elite FC
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -11
Away
Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 2.53 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
03:00 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Home
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.16 2.30 Upside
Sat Nov 7
02:40 PM
CITY SC San Marcos
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away
Palomar College Minkoff Field
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 2.31 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Laguna United
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.42 2.33 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.59 2.36 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.53 2.27 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–2 1.79 2.23 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.74 2.19 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.89 2.24 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.74 2.28 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.81 2.25 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 190+19 123.00 WWWW -1.22 +0.21 98% 1.6
2 Strikers FC North 3300 174+13 93.00 WWW -1.67 +0.23 73% 3.5
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3300 165+11 93.00 WWW -0.60 -0.02 76% 3.4
4 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.47 -0.02 78% 3.3
5 Inland Surf 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.50 +0.26 19% 5.9
6 City SC - San Diego 3210 81+7 72.33 WDW -0.46 -0.01 44% 4.6
7 BOCA OC 3201 42+2 62.00 WWL +0.50 -0.16 12% 6.3
8 Reds FC 3201 68-2 62.00 WWL +0.02 +0.02 1% 8.6
9 CITY SC San Marcos 3102 69-3 31.00 LWL +0.01 +0.02 0% 10.1
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.02 0% 10.2
11 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4013 617-11 10.25 DLLL +1.36 -0.42 0% 11.4
12 Laguna United 3003 27-5 00.00 LLL +0.42 -0.09 0% 12.3
13 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.63 -0.03 0% 12.8
14 Elite FC 3003 011-11 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.33 0% 13.9
15 California Football Academy 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +1.51 -0.25 0% 13.8
16 City SC Southwest 3003 319-16 00.00 LLL +1.23 -0.15 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.