USA of Indiana
Elite Academy League · Mid-America U13 · 17 teams · USA of Indiana (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 21, 11:30 AM
Mary & John Geisse Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.0 against · 2.47 expected points)
| Season so far | USA of Indiana | Indy Premier SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 17th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 7.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L D L | L L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at United Elite SC | — |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Chicago Rush | 0–12 vs Chicago Empire FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.49 | -3.11 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.04 | +1.18 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Indy Premier SC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 3 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Indy Premier SC concede 7.0/game; worst result 0–12 vs Chicago Empire FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Chicago Rush.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Indy Premier SC have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
United Elite SC sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above United Elite SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Indy Premier SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (USA of Indiana – Indy Premier SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.17 PPG |
10th▲ up 1 | 11th— holds | 13th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
10th▲ up 1 | 11th— holds | 13th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 13th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
13th▼ down 2 | 12th▼ down 1 | 15th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th 1%
- 9th 3%
- 10th 6%
- 11th 13%
- 12th 20%
- 13th 28%
- 14th 19%
- 15th 8%
- 16th 2%
- 17th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.15 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatian Eagles SC | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.33) | 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Orland Park Sting FC | 2.50 (+1.70) | 3rd (2.08) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | Chicago Empire FC | 2.33 (+1.53) | 2nd (2.31) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | JaHBat | 2.25 (+1.45) | 5th (1.92) | 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 5 | Team Chicago | 1.80 (+1.00) | 4th (1.97) | 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club | 1.67 (+0.87) | 6th (1.66) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 7 | FC1 Academy | 1.67 (+0.87) | 7th (1.64) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 8 | Forward Madison | 1.50 (+0.70) | 12th (1.10) | 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 9 | Chicago Rush | 1.20 (+0.40) | 8th (1.58) | 12 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 10 | United Elite SC | 1.00 (+0.20) | 10th (1.42) | A point next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link USA of Indiana to Indy Premier SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 8th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 21 11:30 AM |
Indy Premier SC 17th · 0-0-3 · GD -21 |
Home Mary & John Geisse Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–0 | 2.47 | 1.08 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
JB Marine Soccer Club 13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Creve Coeur Park Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.95 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Chicago Empire FC 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +14 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.27 | 0.96 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 PM |
FC1 Academy 7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home Mary & John Geisse Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
0–1 | 1.02 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
Team Chicago 5th · 3-0-2 · GD +9 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–1 | 0.66 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
Hoosier FC 15th · 0-0-1 · GD -5 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 02:00 PM |
FC Stars 14th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away Middle - Niles West High School (Back Grass Fields) · grass |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 12:00 AM |
Orland Park Sting FC 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–2 | 0.57 | 0.96 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Croatian Eagles SC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.45 | +0.47 | 90% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 at Forward Madison · Sat Mar 13 vs JaHBat · Sun Mar 14 vs Chicago Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Orland Park Sting FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | +0.42 | -0.19 | 70% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club · Sun Nov 22 at Chicago City Soccer Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Forward Madison See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Chicago Empire FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -0.76 | -0.05 | 93% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs North Shore United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club · Sun Mar 7 at JaHBat See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | JaHBat | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.96 | +0.16 | 46% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Team Chicago · Sun Mar 7 vs Chicago Empire FC · Sat Mar 13 at Croatian Eagles SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Team Chicago | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | -0.25 | -0.09 | 56% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs JaHBat · Sun Mar 7 vs JB Marine Soccer Club · Sat Mar 20 at Hoosier FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 5 | 1.67 | WDD | -0.49 | +0.01 | 15% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Nov 4 at FC Stars · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Empire FC · Sun Nov 8 at Orland Park Sting FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC1 Academy | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | LDWLW | -0.02 | -0.12 | 10% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Nov 12 at FC Stars · Sat Mar 6 vs JB Marine Soccer Club · Sun Mar 7 vs Forward Madison See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Forward Madison | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | +0.48 | +0.36 | 0% | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs North Shore United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 22 vs Croatian Eagles SC · Sat Mar 6 at Orland Park Sting FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Chicago Rush | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | -0.38 | +0.02 | 9% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Indy Premier SC · Sun Nov 8 at Hoosier FC · Sun Nov 22 vs FC Stars See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | United Elite SC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 5 | 1.00 | DDLWL | +0.62 | -0.37 | 2% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars · Sat Nov 21 at Chicago City Soccer Club · Sat Mar 6 vs North Shore United Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | USA of Indiana | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | +0.04 | +0.01 | 0% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Indy Premier SC · Sat Feb 27 at JB Marine Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at Chicago Empire FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Chicago City Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 28 | -23 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.86 | -0.07 | 0% | 15.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Indy Premier SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Hoosier FC · Sat Nov 21 vs United Elite SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | JB Marine Soccer Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.36 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 vs Hoosier FC · Sat Feb 27 vs USA of Indiana · Sat Mar 6 at FC1 Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | FC Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | L | -0.63 | +0.02 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Nov 4 vs Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at United Elite SC · Thu Nov 12 vs FC1 Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Hoosier FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.28 | -0.14 | 0% | 13.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Chicago Rush · Sat Nov 14 at Chicago City Soccer Club · Sun Nov 15 at FC Stars See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | North Shore United Soccer Club | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.65 | +0.36 | 0% | 15.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Chicago Empire FC · Sat Nov 21 at Forward Madison · Sat Mar 6 at United Elite SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Indy Premier SC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.18 | -0.10 | 0% | 16.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Rush · Sun Nov 8 vs Chicago City Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 at USA of Indiana See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.