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Croatian Eagles SC

Elite Academy League · Mid-America U13 · 17 teams · Croatian Eagles SC (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+12 goal diff · 14–2
WWWWlast 4
90% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3
-0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 22, 09:00 AM

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Croatian Eagles SC
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Forward Madison
8th · 1.50 PPG

Madison College - Irwin A. & Robert D. Goodman, Stadium Field ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.7 for, 0.9 against · 2.40 expected points)

Season so farCroatian Eagles SCForward Madison
Position1st8th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-0-2
Points per game3.001.50
Goals for / game3.50.8
Goals against / game0.52.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W WW L L W
Biggest win8–0 at Chicago City Soccer Club1–0 vs FC Stars
Worst loss—0–4 vs Team Chicago
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.65-0.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.45+0.48

Common opponents: Team Chicago — we 2–1; they 0–4. United Elite SC — we 2–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Forward Madison average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 2 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Madison College - Irwin A. & Robert D. Goodman.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Forward Madison game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Croatian Eagles SC – Forward Madison) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

41% finish 1st
90% top 4
10% below the top 4
2.3 average finish
  1. 1st 41%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 16%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Croatian Eagles SC to Forward Madison through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 favour them
+2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 3–0 2–1 4–0 8–0 2–10 1–2 2–1 2–1 0–1 Croatian Eagles SC 1st United Elite SC 10th Team Chicago 5th Chicago City Soccer… 12th FC1 Academy 7th Chicago Rush 9th Forward Madison 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.47 · 1st hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Forward Madison
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away
Madison College - Irwin A. & Robert D. Goodman · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–0 2.40 2.88 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
JaHBat
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +11
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.93 2.72 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Chicago Rush
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 2.63 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 2.53 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
North Shore United Soccer Club
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.76 2.56 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
FC Stars
14th · 0-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.24 2.53 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Chicago Empire FC
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.10 2.40 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Orland Park Sting FC
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.63 2.33 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Croatian Eagles SC 4400 142+12 123.00 WWWW -0.45 +0.47 90% 2.3
2 Orland Park Sting FC 4310 104+6 102.50 WWWD +0.42 -0.19 70% 3.7
3 Chicago Empire FC 3210 151+14 72.33 DWW -0.76 -0.05 93% 2.2
4 JaHBat 4301 176+11 92.25 LWWW -0.96 +0.16 46% 4.9
5 Team Chicago 5302 123+9 91.80 LLWWW -0.25 -0.09 56% 4.4
6 Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club 3120 94+5 51.67 WDD -0.49 +0.01 15% 7.0
7 FC1 Academy 6312 96+3 101.67 LDWLW -0.02 -0.12 10% 7.3
8 Forward Madison 4202 38-5 61.50 WLLW +0.48 +0.36 0% 11.6
9 Chicago Rush 5203 158+7 61.20 LLWWL -0.38 +0.02 9% 7.6
10 United Elite SC 5122 66+0 51.00 DDLWL +0.62 -0.37 2% 9.1
11 USA of Indiana 5113 59-4 40.80 LDLWL +0.04 +0.01 0% 12.6
12 Chicago City Soccer Club 4103 528-23 30.75 WLLL +0.86 -0.07 0% 15.2
13 JB Marine Soccer Club 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.36 ——
14 FC Stars 1001 01-1 00.00 L -0.63 +0.02 0% 11.2
15 Hoosier FC 1001 05-5 00.00 L +1.28 -0.14 0% 13.4
16 North Shore United Soccer Club 3003 311-8 00.00 LLL +0.65 +0.36 0% 15.3
17 Indy Premier SC 3003 021-21 00.00 LLL +1.18 -0.10 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.