TableChase Clubs

Scorpions SC PRE

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · Scorpions SC (all teams)

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2nd
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+6 goal diff · 8–2
WWlast 2
92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
-0.95 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Scorpions SC PRE
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
8th · 1.00 PPG

Randall's Island, Field 10 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.8 against · 2.19 expected points)

Season so farScorpions SC PREManhattan SC Pre- Red
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-01-1-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game4.01.8
Goals against / game1.03.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W WW D L L
Biggest win5–1 at Connecticut FC Pre l2–1 at AC Connecticut Pre- I
Worst loss—3–7 at Select Pre- Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.00-0.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.95-0.06

Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY — we 3–1; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 68% / draw 15% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:30 AM at Randall's Island.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FSA FC Pre sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above FSA FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Manhattan SC Pre- Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Scorpions SC PRE – Manhattan SC Pre- Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
92% top 4
8% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 56%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FSA FC Pre 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.54) Win next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Scorpions SC PRE to Manhattan SC Pre- Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
0 favour them
+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 4–1 5–1 1–8 7–3 1–4 0–0 Scorpions SC PRE 2nd SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 5th Connecticut FC Pre l 12th Select Pre- Blue 7th Manhattan SC Pre- R… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
10:30 AM
no score posted
Select Pre- Blue
7th · 2-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Taunton Forekicks
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.95 2.65 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -6
Away far trip
Randall's Island
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 2.54 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
08:30 AM
East Coast Surf Pre
10th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Holy Trinity high school
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.93 2.41 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
08:30 AM
FSA FC Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–3 0.84 2.15 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
FC Stars Pre- Blue
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.02 2.13 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
AC Connecticut Pre- I
6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
Walpole Soccer Complex · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 2.13 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
9th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Home
Taunton Forekicks
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.35 2.16 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
SUSA FC Pre- l
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Medway High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–2 1.77 2.12 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
01:45 PM
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
Walpole Soccer Complex · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.93 2.10 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Select Pre- Blue
7th · 2-1-2 · GD +5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.61 2.06 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
5th · 4-1-3 · GD +2
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.63 2.03 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
FC Stars Pre- Blue
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Home
Taunton Forekicks
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.30 2.05 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.61 2.02 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
SUSA FC Pre- l
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.45 1.98 Upside
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -6
Home
Taunton Forekicks
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.44 2.01 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
East Coast Surf Pre
10th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Home
Taunton Forekicks
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.17 2.02 Swing game
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
FSA FC Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15
Home
Taunton Forekicks
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.14 1.97 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
Connecticut FC Pre l
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -21
Home
Taunton Forekicks
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.83 2.01 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
9th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 2.02 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
AC Connecticut Pre- I
6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.86 2.01 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FSA FC Pre 5500 227+15 153.00 WWWWW +0.25 -0.32 100% 1.1
2 Scorpions SC PRE 2200 82+6 63.00 WW -0.95 -0.01 92% 2.6
3 SUSA FC Pre- l 4301 127+5 92.25 WWLW -0.20 -0.04 75% 3.6
4 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5302 1410+4 91.80 WWLWL -0.20 -0.00 43% 5.0
5 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 8413 1715+2 131.63 LWWLD +0.13 -0.12 39% 5.1
6 AC Connecticut Pre- I 4202 67-1 61.50 WLWL -0.10 +0.02 8% 7.3
7 Select Pre- Blue 5212 1813+5 71.40 LWWLD -0.22 -0.00 36% 5.3
8 Manhattan SC Pre- Red 4112 713-6 41.00 LLDW -0.06 +0.08 0% 9.4
9 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 3012 48-4 10.33 LLD +0.02 +0.04 0% 9.6
10 East Coast Surf Pre 2002 02-2 00.00 LL +0.01 +0.02 1% 8.9
11 FC Stars Pre- Blue 1001 25-3 00.00 L +1.93 -0.07 5% 8.1
12 Connecticut FC Pre l 5005 425-21 00.00 LLLLL +0.53 +0.10 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.