TableChase Clubs

Connecticut FC Pre l

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · Connecticut FC (all teams)

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12th
0-0-5 record · 5 played
0.00 points per game
-21 goal diff · 4–25
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
+0.52 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Connecticut FC Pre l
12th · 0.00 PPG
vs
AC Connecticut Pre- I
6th · 1.50 PPG

CFC Park, Field 1 A ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.8 against · 0.64 expected points)

Season so farConnecticut FC Pre lAC Connecticut Pre- I
Position12th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-52-0-2
Points per game0.001.50
Goals for / game0.81.5
Goals against / game5.01.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L L L LL W L W
Biggest win—4–2 vs Select Pre- Blue
Worst loss1–8 at Select Pre- Blue0–3 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.32-0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.52-0.09

Common opponents: Select Pre- Blue — we 1–8; they 4–2. East Meadow Soccer Club Pre — we 1–4; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at SUSA FC Pre- l.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 16%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    FC Stars Pre- Blue sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above FC Stars Pre- Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AC Connecticut Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Connecticut FC Pre l – AC Connecticut Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Win
0.50 PPG
9th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 1
Draw
0.17 PPG
10th▲ up 2 12th— holds 12th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 96%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.32 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FSA FC Pre 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.54) 66 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Scorpions SC PRE 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.01) 66 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 SUSA FC Pre- l 2.25 (+2.25) 3rd (1.83) 50 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 1.80 (+1.80) 4th (1.61) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 1.63 (+1.63) 5th (1.60) 36 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
6 AC Connecticut Pre- I 1.50 (+1.50) 7th (1.32) 33 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 Select Pre- Blue 1.40 (+1.40) 6th (1.56) 31 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
8 Manhattan SC Pre- Red 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.03) 22 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 0.25 (+0.25) 11th (0.97) A point next game
10 East Coast Surf Pre 0.00 (+0.00) 9th (1.09) Already ahead
11 FC Stars Pre- Blue 0.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.20) Already ahead

How the results connect

7 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Connecticut FC Pre l to AC Connecticut Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
-2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 3–0 1–8 2–4 1–4 4–1 2–1 7–3 5–3 1–0 0–1 0–0 Connecticut FC Pre l 12th East Meadow Soccer … 4th Select Pre- Blue 7th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 5th Manhattan SC Pre- R… 8th East Coast Surf Pre 10th AC Connecticut Pre-… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 1st hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM
AC Connecticut Pre- I
6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
CFC Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.64 0.11 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
9th · 0-1-3 · GD -6
Home
CFC Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.79 0.20 Upside
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -6
Home
CFC Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.80 0.28 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:30 AM
East Coast Surf Pre
10th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Home
CFC Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.77 0.33 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
FC Stars Pre- Blue
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Home
CFC Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.62 0.36 Upside
Sun Dec 6
TBD
FSA FC Pre
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17
Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.10 0.34 Upside
Sat Mar 6
08:30 AM
FSA FC Pre
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–6 0.05 0.31 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 0.33 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
East Coast Surf Pre
10th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.57 0.35 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
5th · 4-1-3 · GD +2
Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.46 0.36 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Select Pre- Blue
7th · 2-1-2 · GD +5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.33 0.35 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
SUSA FC Pre- l
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.32 0.35 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.35 Upside
Sat Apr 17
08:30 AM
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
9th · 0-1-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 0.36 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
FC Stars Pre- Blue
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–4 0.41 0.37 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
Scorpions SC PRE
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Away
Taunton Forekicks
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.13 0.35 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
AC Connecticut Pre- I
6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.44 0.36 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FSA FC Pre 6600 269+17 183.00 WWWWW +0.07 -0.30 100% 1.1
2 Scorpions SC PRE 2200 82+6 63.00 WW -0.95 -0.02 92% 2.6
3 SUSA FC Pre- l 4301 127+5 92.25 WWLW -0.22 -0.05 77% 3.6
4 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5302 1410+4 91.80 WWLWL -0.21 -0.01 42% 5.0
5 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 8413 1715+2 131.63 LWWLD +0.13 -0.12 38% 5.1
6 AC Connecticut Pre- I 4202 67-1 61.50 WLWL -0.09 +0.01 9% 7.3
7 Select Pre- Blue 5212 1813+5 71.40 LWWLD -0.23 -0.01 35% 5.4
8 Manhattan SC Pre- Red 4112 713-6 41.00 LLDW -0.07 +0.07 1% 9.3
9 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 4013 612-6 10.25 LLDL +0.53 -0.07 0% 9.7
10 East Coast Surf Pre 2002 02-2 00.00 LL +0.01 +0.01 1% 8.9
11 FC Stars Pre- Blue 1001 25-3 00.00 L +1.88 -0.07 5% 8.0
12 Connecticut FC Pre l 5005 425-21 00.00 LLLLL +0.52 +0.09 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.