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FC Stars Pre- Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · FC Stars (all teams)

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11th
0-0-1 record · 1 played
0.00 points per game
-3 goal diff · 2–5
Llast 1
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.1
+1.93 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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FC Stars Pre- Blue
11th · 0.00 PPG
at
East Coast Surf Pre
10th · 0.00 PPG

cedar creek park, 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.9 against · 1.30 expected points)

Season so farFC Stars Pre- BlueEast Coast Surf Pre
Position11th10th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-10-0-2
Points per game0.000.00
Goals for / game2.00.0
Goals against / game5.01.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)LL L
Biggest win——
Worst loss2–5 at FSA FC Pre0–1 at AC Connecticut Pre- I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.42-0.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.93+0.01

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    East Coast Surf Pre average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 2 of 2.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Hard to break down
    East Coast Surf Pre concede only 1.0/game with 0 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:30 AM at cedar creek park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    East Coast Surf Pre sit 10th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above East Coast Surf Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Coast Surf Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Stars Pre- Blue – East Coast Surf Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.50 PPG
9th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Win
1.50 PPG
7th▲ up 4 7th▲ up 4 8th▲ up 3
Draw
0.50 PPG
9th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
8.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 21%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 15%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FSA FC Pre 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.54) 66 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection
2 Scorpions SC PRE 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.01) 66 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 SUSA FC Pre- l 2.25 (+2.25) 3rd (1.83) 50 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 1.80 (+1.80) 4th (1.61) 40 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 1.63 (+1.63) 5th (1.60) 36 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
6 AC Connecticut Pre- I 1.50 (+1.50) 7th (1.31) Win next game
7 Select Pre- Blue 1.40 (+1.40) 6th (1.56) A point next game
8 Manhattan SC Pre- Red 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.02) A point next game
9 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 0.33 (+0.33) 11th (0.98) Already ahead
10 East Coast Surf Pre 0.00 (+0.00) 9th (1.08) Already ahead

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link FC Stars Pre- Blue to East Coast Surf Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–5 5–1 1–0 FC Stars Pre- Blue 11th FSA FC Pre 1st SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 5th East Coast Surf Pre 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM
East Coast Surf Pre
10th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
cedar creek park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.30 0.65 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -6
Away far trip
Randall's Island
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 0.92 Swing game
Thu Oct 29
06:00 PM
Select Pre- Blue
7th · 2-1-2 · GD +5
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–3 1.13 0.97 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
5th · 4-1-3 · GD +2
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.22 1.02 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Connecticut FC Pre l
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -21
Away far trip
CFC Park
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.25 1.23 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Scorpions SC PRE
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–3 0.82 1.17 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:30 AM
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
9th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.73 1.24 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:30 AM
AC Connecticut Pre- I
6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.47 1.27 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
09:30 AM
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.16 1.26 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:30 AM
SUSA FC Pre- l
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–2 1.02 1.23 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
5th · 4-1-3 · GD +2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.93 1.21 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Select Pre- Blue
7th · 2-1-2 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–3 0.80 1.18 Upside
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
Scorpions SC PRE
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Away
Taunton Forekicks
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.57 1.13 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
SUSA FC Pre- l
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.73 1.11 Upside
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.85 1.09 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
AC Connecticut Pre- I
6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.17 1.10 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
9th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 1.11 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
East Coast Surf Pre
10th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.58 1.14 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.81 1.17 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Connecticut FC Pre l
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -21
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.50 1.23 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD
FSA FC Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15
Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–4 0.48 1.20 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FSA FC Pre 5500 227+15 153.00 WWWWW +0.25 -0.32 100% 1.1
2 Scorpions SC PRE 2200 82+6 63.00 WW -0.95 -0.01 92% 2.6
3 SUSA FC Pre- l 4301 127+5 92.25 WWLW -0.20 -0.04 75% 3.6
4 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5302 1410+4 91.80 WWLWL -0.20 -0.00 43% 5.0
5 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 8413 1715+2 131.63 LWWLD +0.13 -0.12 39% 5.1
6 AC Connecticut Pre- I 4202 67-1 61.50 WLWL -0.10 +0.02 8% 7.3
7 Select Pre- Blue 5212 1813+5 71.40 LWWLD -0.22 -0.00 36% 5.3
8 Manhattan SC Pre- Red 4112 713-6 41.00 LLDW -0.06 +0.08 0% 9.4
9 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 3012 48-4 10.33 LLD +0.02 +0.04 0% 9.6
10 East Coast Surf Pre 2002 02-2 00.00 LL +0.01 +0.02 1% 8.9
11 FC Stars Pre- Blue 1001 25-3 00.00 L +1.93 -0.07 5% 8.1
12 Connecticut FC Pre l 5005 425-21 00.00 LLLLL +0.53 +0.10 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.