FSA FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · FSA FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:30 AM
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena, Field 7 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.2 against · 2.64 expected points)
| Season so far | FSA FC Pre | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 0-1-2 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / game | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | D L L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at Select Pre- Blue | — |
| Worst loss | — | 3–5 at SUSA FC Pre- l |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.93 | -0.62 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.25 | +0.02 |
Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- l — we 3–1; they 3–5. East Meadow Soccer Club Pre — we 4–2; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 08:30 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FSA FC Pre – Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 94%
- 2nd 6%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
6 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link FSA FC Pre to Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.32 · 12th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 08:30 AM |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 9th · 0-1-2 · GD -4 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.64 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 08:30 AM |
AC Connecticut Pre- I 6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 2.87 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 04:00 PM |
East Coast Surf Pre 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 2.82 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 08:30 AM |
Manhattan SC Pre- Red 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.71 | 2.81 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 08:30 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–1 | 2.00 | 2.73 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Connecticut FC Pre l 12th · 0-0-5 · GD -21 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–1 | 2.87 | 2.74 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 08:30 AM |
Connecticut FC Pre l 12th · 0-0-5 · GD -21 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–0 | 2.93 | 2.76 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
East Coast Surf Pre 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.27 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Manhattan SC Pre- Red 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
4–1 | 2.54 | 2.71 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 08:30 AM |
Select Pre- Blue 7th · 2-1-2 · GD +5 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
4–2 | 2.37 | 2.68 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 08:30 AM |
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.30 | 2.66 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 08:30 AM |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 2.64 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 08:30 AM |
SUSA FC Pre- l 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 2.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre- I 6th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.23 | 2.60 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 9th · 0-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 2.59 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 09:00 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6 |
Away Taunton Forekicks |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.68 | 2.54 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
FC Stars Pre- Blue 11th · 0-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
4–1 | 2.41 | 2.54 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FSA FC Pre | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.25 | -0.32 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Scorpions SC PRE | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.95 | -0.01 | 92% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Select Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf Pre See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SUSA FC Pre- l | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.20 | -0.04 | 75% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Select Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs AC Connecticut Pre- I See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | -0.20 | -0.00 | 43% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre- l · Sat Nov 7 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 | 1.63 | LWWLD | +0.13 | -0.12 | 38% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sun Nov 8 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | AC Connecticut Pre- I | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.10 | +0.02 | 7% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Connecticut FC Pre l · Sun Oct 25 at FSA FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Select Pre- Blue | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 7 | 1.40 | LWWLD | -0.22 | -0.00 | 36% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Scorpions SC PRE · Sat Oct 24 vs SUSA FC Pre- l · Thu Oct 29 at FC Stars Pre- Blue See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Manhattan SC Pre- Red | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | -0.06 | +0.08 | 1% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Scorpions SC PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 31 at East Coast Surf Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | +0.02 | +0.04 | 0% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sat Oct 24 at FSA FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Connecticut FC Pre l See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | East Coast Surf Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.01 | +0.02 | 1% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC PRE See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | FC Stars Pre- Blue | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.93 | -0.07 | 6% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red · Thu Oct 29 vs Select Pre- Blue See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Connecticut FC Pre l | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 25 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.53 | +0.10 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Manhattan SC Pre- Red See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.