TableChase Clubs

FC 1974 Libertyville Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Lake Michigan BU12 · 13 teams · Greater Libertyville Soccer Association (all teams)

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5th
5-1-2 record · 8 played
2.00 points per game
+12 goal diff · 20–8
WLWWDlast 5
27% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1
-0.61 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:30 PM

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FC 1974 Libertyville Pre
5th · 2.00 PPG
at
Bloomingdale Lightning Pre
1st · 2.63 PPG

Springfield Park , Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.6 against · 0.89 expected points)

Season so farFC 1974 Libertyville PreBloomingdale Lightning Pre
Position5th1st
Record (W-D-L)5-1-27-0-1
Points per game2.002.63
Goals for / game2.54.8
Goals against / game1.01.5
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W W L WW W W W W
Biggest win5–1 vs Force Pre7–1 at Force Pre
Worst loss1–2 vs Rockford Raptors FC Pre5–6 vs Indiana Elite FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.84+2.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.61-0.65

Common opponents: Force Pre — we 5–1; they 7–1. Rockford Raptors FC Pre — we 1–2; they 3–2. FC Wisconsin Pre — we 1–0; they 3–1. Indiana Elite FC Pre — we 1–2; they 5–6. Chicago Soccer Academy Pre — we 4–0; they 4–1. Chicago City SC Pre — we 3–2; they 6–0. Chicago Magic Soccer Club Pre — we 1–1; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Bloomingdale Lightning Pre score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Bloomingdale Lightning Pre have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:30 PM at Springfield Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Bloomingdale Lightning Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC 1974 Libertyville Pre – Bloomingdale Lightning Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.78 PPG		 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1
Win
2.11 PPG		 5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.89 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.78 PPG		 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
27% top 4
73% below the top 4
5.1 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 37%
  6. 6th 28%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Bloomingdale Lightning Pre 2.63 (+0.63) 1st (2.33) 48 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
2 Roadrunners SC Pre 2.63 (+0.63) 2nd (2.29) 48 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
3 Rockford Raptors FC Pre 2.20 (+0.20) 3rd (2.27) 37 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 Eclipse Select Soccer Club Pre 2.17 (+0.17) 4th (2.00) 37 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection

How the results connect

35 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link FC 1974 Libertyville Pre to Bloomingdale Lightning Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
3 even
24 favour them
-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 6–5 4–0 1–4 1–0 1–3 1–2 2–3 5–1 1–7 1–1 1–4 3–2 0–6 5–2 4–0 2–0 0–6 3–3 6–1 0–2 FC 1974 Libertyvill… 5th Indiana Elite FC Pre 6th Chicago Soccer Acad… 10th FC Wisconsin Pre 11th Rockford Raptors FC… 3rd Force Pre 12th Chicago Magic Socce… 7th Chicago City SC Pre 13th NWI Lions United Pre 8th Chicago Inter Pre 9th Bloomingdale Lightn… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 21 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 14 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 2nd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Aug 30
06:00 PM
no score posted		 Chicago Inter Pre
9th · 3-1-4 · GD -13		 Away far trip
Chicago Inter Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–1 2.25 2.03 Swing game
Sat Oct 10
TBD
no score posted		 Force Pre
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -18		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 2–0 2.46 2.07 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
04:30 PM		 Bloomingdale Lightning Pre
1st · 7-0-1 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Springfield Park 		●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.89 1.96 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 Eclipse Select Soccer Club Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +11		 Away far trip
Oak Brook Park District · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.20 1.90 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:00 PM		 Roadrunners SC Pre
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +18		 Away far trip
Jefferson Junior High		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 0.99 1.83 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Roadrunners SC Pre
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +18		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.24 1.79 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Chicago Inter Pre
9th · 3-1-4 · GD -13		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 2–0 2.46 1.83 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Bloomingdale Lightning Pre
1st · 7-0-1 · GD +26		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.17 1.79 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:30 AM		 Rockford Raptors FC Pre
3rd · 7-1-2 · GD +23		 Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.91 1.74 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 FC Wisconsin Pre
11th · 1-0-6 · GD -7		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.07 1.76 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 NWI Lions United Pre
8th · 3-0-4 · GD -13		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–1 2.29 1.79 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Indiana Elite FC Pre
6th · 4-2-3 · GD +0		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.77 1.78 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD		 Chicago Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-1-6 · GD -17		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 2–0 2.53 1.82 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 Chicago City SC Pre
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -23		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.54 1.85 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD		 Chicago Magic Soccer Club Pre
7th · 2-2-2 · GD +1		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–1 1.56 1.84 Swing game
Sun Jun 6
TBD		 Eclipse Select Soccer Club Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
42%		 1–1 1.47 1.82 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Bloomingdale Lightning Pre 8701 3812+26 212.63 WWWWW -0.65 -0.02 98% 2.0
2 Roadrunners SC Pre 8701 268+18 212.63 WWLWW -0.56 +0.06 96% 2.3
3 Rockford Raptors FC Pre 10712 3512+23 222.20 WWWLW +0.05 -0.36 98% 2.3
4 Eclipse Select Soccer Club Pre 6411 198+11 132.17 WWWWL -0.38 -0.03 66% 4.1
5 FC 1974 Libertyville Pre 8512 208+12 162.00 WLWWD -0.61 +0.15 27% 5.1
6 Indiana Elite FC Pre 9423 2424+0 141.56 WWWLD +0.18 -0.17 2% 6.6
7 Chicago Magic Soccer Club Pre 6222 1615+1 81.33 LWWLD +1.03 -0.44 13% 5.7
8 NWI Lions United Pre 7304 922-13 91.29 LLLWW +0.19 -0.00 0% 9.1
9 Chicago Inter Pre 8314 1225-13 101.25 WLWLD -0.11 +0.15 0% 9.0
10 Chicago Soccer Academy Pre 8116 623-17 40.50 LLLLD +0.42 -0.09 0% 11.2
11 FC Wisconsin Pre 7106 1118-7 30.43 LLLLL +0.10 -0.01 0% 9.6
12 Force Pre 6015 523-18 10.17 LLLLD +0.80 -0.14 0% 11.7
13 Chicago City SC Pre 7007 1134-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.02 0% 12.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.30 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.