TableChase Clubs

OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU11 · 11 teams · Oklahoma Energy FC (all teams)

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4th
5-0-3 record · 8 played
1.88 points per game
+16 goal diff · 36–20
LWWLWlast 5
85% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6
+0.40 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Wed Oct 28, 06:30 PM

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OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
4th · 1.88 PPG
at
Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
11th · 0.00 PPG

Oklahoma Celtic, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 7–0 (expected goals 7.7 for, 1.0 against · 2.97 expected points)

Season so farOK Energy FC Frontier Pre- WhiteOklahoma Celtic Pre- White
Position4th11th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-30-0-10
Points per game1.880.00
Goals for / game4.50.4
Goals against / game2.57.7
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless27
Form (recent first)W L W W LL L L L L
Biggest win11–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White—
Worst loss0–9 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre0–12 at Arkansas Rising Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.44-5.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.40-0.32

Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 11–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White (W)

Common opponents: Tulsa SC Frontier Pre — we 6–0; they 1–5, 0–8. Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 6–1; they 2–10. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 0–2; they 0–3. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I — we 1–7; they 0–9. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II — we 10–1; they 0–9.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 3.5); blanked in 7 of 10.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White concede 7.7/game; worst result 0–12 at Arkansas Rising Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre, 0–9 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 7–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White have lost 10 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:30 PM at Oklahoma Celtic.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Wednesday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White – Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.78 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.67 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 7–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
85% top 4
15% below the top 4
3.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 53%
  4. 4th 30%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.55 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 3.00 (+1.12) 1st (2.91) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 2.50 (+0.62) 2nd (2.44) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 2.22 (+0.34) 4th (1.92) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

63 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White to Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

61 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+10.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
11–0 0–2 3–0 1–7 9–0 6–0 5–1 6–1 10–2 8–0 10–1 9–0 0–9 6–1 5–0 3–1 1–12 4–2 5–5 OK Energy FC Fronti… 4th OK Energy FC Fronti… 3rd Arkansas Comets FC … 2nd Tulsa SC Frontier P… 9th Broken Arrow Soccer… 5th Arkansas Comets FC … 7th FC Tulsa Academy Pre 1st West Side Alliance … 10th Oklahoma Celtic Pre… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.38 · 10th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
03:00 PM
no score posted		 West Side Alliance Pre
10th · 2-0-7 · GD -33		 Away far trip
RiverCity Parks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 5–1 2.71 1.97 Bank it
Wed Oct 28
06:30 PM		 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
11th · 0-0-10 · GD -73		 Away
Oklahoma Celtic		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 7–0 2.97 2.07 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM		 Arkansas Rising Pre
8th · 3-0-7 · GD -14		 Home
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 5–2 2.53 2.11 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0		 Home
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.10 2.11 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
05:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +58		 Home
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–5 0.24 1.97 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre
10th · 2-0-7 · GD -33		 Home
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 6–1 2.84 2.03 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +9		 Home
North Oklahoma City FC		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 3–2 1.92 2.02 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
11:00 AM		 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
5th · 6-1-4 · GD +12		 Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 3–3 1.47 1.99 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
03:00 PM		 Arkansas Rising Pre
8th · 3-0-7 · GD -14		 Away far trip
Burns Park 		●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 5–3 2.25 2.00 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
02:00 PM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +45		 Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 2–4 0.64 1.93 Upside
Sun Feb 21
11:00 AM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II
7th · 5-1-5 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 4–2 2.05 1.93 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
01:00 PM		 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre
9th · 3-0-8 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 4–2 2.30 1.95 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 7700 602+58 213.00 WWWWW +0.17 -0.85 100% 1.0
2 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 10811 6621+45 252.50 WDWWW -0.39 -0.15 100% 2.0
3 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 9621 3526+9 202.22 WDDLW +0.05 -0.09 75% 3.9
4 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 8503 3620+16 151.88 LWWLW +0.40 -0.38 85% 3.6
5 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 11614 4028+12 191.73 WLDWW +0.06 +0.05 34% 4.7
6 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6312 1111+0 101.67 WLWDL +0.09 +0.09 5% 6.1
7 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 11515 3944-5 161.45 LDLWW -0.44 +0.79 0% 6.7
8 Arkansas Rising Pre 10307 3549-14 90.90 WWLLL +0.24 +0.11 0% 8.2
9 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 11308 2641-15 90.82 LLLLL -0.27 +0.83 0% 8.8
10 West Side Alliance Pre 9207 1548-33 60.67 LLLWW -0.55 +0.95 0% 9.9
11 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 100010 477-73 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +1.58 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.